CHENNAI: Over the last 48 hours and the next 48 hours, the Proteas would have and will be reminded of the one T20I match they had no right losing. With Heinrich Klaasen and David Miller in the middle and South Africa needing 30 from as many balls (and 26 from 24) to win the final of the last edition in 2024, the win predictor for them was in the high 90s. India had nothing but a wing and a prayer, a hail mary. South Africa, it seemed, had not just a winning hand but a royal flush. That's when one of the greatest heists began as they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Under Rohit Sharma, India went on to win that World Cup. They immediately started putting in place the building blocks to defend that title in 2026. Regimes changed. A new captain was identified. Openers changed. New bowlers were added. A new short-term plan was put in place effective immediately to win the title in front of their fans. Their role clarity, if anything, has only strengthened. Their ratio since that heady sun-kissed day in Barbados is 5.8 wins per every loss. Suryakumar Yadav, their captain, has featured in 40 out of 45 T20I games in the intervening period.
When South Africa lost that final, some players were moved on. Others announced retirement. There was some chopping and changing. The captain remained. Aiden Markram, their skipper, has featured in 25 out of 36 games. One day after South Africa played and lost in a one-off T20I game against Namibia, Markram captained their Test team in Pakistan. Their ratio since that gut-wrenching Barbados day is 10 losses every 7.5 wins.
All of this is a roundabout way to say that there are two ways to plan for a global event. India have gone about in a methodical way. The Proteas have gone about it differently because most of their A-listers are generally not available to them whenever they play bilateral T20Is. So, their coach, Shukri Conrad, one of the new faces in the dugout in this format, has had to take the scenic route.
And that's even before you take into account that Quinton de Kock took a sabbatical, came back and is now one of the automatic choices to open. Tristan Stubbs was dropped, picked and is now one of the automatic choices in the middle-order. Ryan Rickleton was dropped, picked and is now locked to be at No. 3. That all of this has happened over the last five months or so is impressive (Rickelton and Stubbs happened after their initial squad was published earlier this year).
And, yet, they have emerged as one of the contenders to win (apart from India) the World Cup. It kind of shows that planning can be very overrated in this format. It also shows that South Africa have embraced tactical fluidity and flexibility, two traits you need lots of in this format.
In the bowling department, they have pacers doing all sorts. Pace on, pace off, cutters into the surface (think Pat Cummins in the 50-over World Cup in 2023), left-arm spin, left-arm pace, off-spin to open bowling (this could be key especially against India) as well as six-hitting firepower to end the innings. As more and more teams go back to the traditional T20 way of exploding at the back-end because pitches have had something in it, this World Cup has seen teams try and get to 75-80 in the first 10 before setting up to score over 100 in the back-end. It's why the likes of David Miller and Stubbs have become more important.
South Africa's big advantage
Unlike India, Markram has had a big advantage when the schedule was out. They knew they would be playing their entire World Cup in either Ahmedabad or New Delhi (as long as Pakistan don't have a deep run). It's why they picked a boat load of seamers (six out of 15) to match the pitches there. Having stayed in Ahmedabad and played there for over the last two weeks, they know they are well acclimatised to the conditions when India face them on Sunday.
There is also the greater intangible at play. Their belief and mental make-up. Unlike in previous ICC tournaments, this iteration are coming in world champions of an ICC event. Kagiso Rabada said how winning the World Test Championship (WTC) has meant no more jokes and how it has changed public perception. When that was put to Markram before the World Cup, he said: "... it does feel that way — the belief, the confidence, the monkey off the back — all those things play a role in the language and behaviour within the camp. It definitely helps. But having said that, you don’t come here thinking it is suddenly going to be easy. We still have to be at our best. The WTC trophy definitely gave us belief and confidence within the group."
That belief and confidence faces an almighty test against the holders in their own backyard in what could be a dress rehearsal for a more important game two weeks from now.