Maverick film-maker Ram Gopal Varma on Tuesday tweeted pics of his upcoming movie Vangaveeti. The film is named after a fiery gang leader, Vangaveeti Mohana Ranga Rao, who went on to become a hero of the Kapus. RGV’s film is expected to depict the bloody gang war between the Vangaveeti and Devineni gangs. Giving a caste undercurrent to the tussle, the Vangaveetis were Kapus and the Devinenis Kammas, both moneyed castes competing for the same turf in the Krishna-Godavari belt of Andhra.
Now, forget for a moment RGV's terrible creative implosion lately. Just as a thought experiment, imagine Pawan Kalyan — the leading Telugu matinee idol who idolized as the ‘Power Star’ by his fans — playing the role of Vangaveeti, whose assassination in 1989 was a milestone in the politics of Andhra.
The Tollywood star fits the bill perfectly. Notwithstanding his many isms, he's a Kapu, an occasional politician with a part-time party of his own, Jana Sena. He has charisma, perhaps reminiscent of Vangaveeti himself.
Now if RGV doesn't make an Aag of it, Vangaveeti Pawan would surely be the hero the Kapus have waited for for over three decades. But is Pawan ready for the role in the real world of Andhra politics? Given his on-guest appearances at high-visibility press conferences, he comes across more like a reluctant politician a la Rahul Gandhi. Does he have it? Does he want it?
Whatever the Power Star’s Hamletian calculations, he may have to face the moment of truth sooner than later. Here are five reasons why.
1. There’s competition at home
Pawan Kalyan’s big brother is Chiranjeevi, a film star lionized as Mega Star, who made a political debut in 2009 when he floated the Praja Rajyam party. Kapu hopes soared then, but he came a cropper in the election. And, adding insult to injury, he decided to merge his party with the Congress, which went down as a sellout in the Kapu community.
But now, as a fallout of the excision of Telangana from Andhra Pradesh, Kapus find themselves in a great position again to pole vault into the corridors of power. Constituting about 27 per cent of the population in the residuary state, they have a golden chance to call the shots.
Banking on exactly this factor, the Congress, which was wiped out in Andhra in the last election, is eyeing a comeback riding piggyback on Chiranjeevi’s Kapu credentials. Although he lacks the guts of a Vangaveeti, the Mega Star still has some charisma thanks to his Tollywood career. So, as the Kapu cauldron begins to stir, he is ready and willing to champion the Kapu cause.
A day after the Kapu quota agitation turned violent in Tuni, he dashed off an open letter to CM Chandrababu Naidu, demanding inclusion of the community in the BC list.
So will Pawan Kalyan stand by and defer to Annaiah?
2. Then there’s Mudragada Padmanabham
Padmanabham is a longstanding Kapu leader. A minister in various TDP and Congress governments, has been a constant in Kapu politics over three decades. He now sees a chance of catapulting himself and his community into power. He's presently leading the agitation for quotas for Kapus. The way young men of the community responded to his clarion call to block roads and trains in Tuni earlier this week shows his sway over the Kapus. If Kapu anger coalesces around him, he might float a party of his won and strive to become the first Kapu CM of Andhra.
And while that happens, will Pawan sit by and watch? Won't his friends in the BJP and perhaps even the TDP prod him into leaping into the fray?
3. The BJP is courting him
It's no secret that the BJP has been planning to expand its base in Andhra ever since the division of Andhra Pradesh. True, it is allied with the TDP presently. But, given Chandrababu Naidu's tactics of confining the saffron party to the fringes, it cannot afford to forever hang onto the TDP boss’ coat tails. Alas, the party has no leader worth the name in the State. Pawan, therefore, is an appealing choice. It would surely like to keep the star in good humour and in good form to be its Kapu magnet.
Remember, Pawan is a self-confessed admirer of Narendra Modi, if not a fan. Would he say no if Modi invites him to a chai pe charcha and does some hero talk? Surely, Modi is already weighing the permutations and combinations for the 2019 elections? If the TDP loses steam by then, Pawan could be the BJP's war horse in Andhra.
4. Jagan may steal the Kapu vote
YSRC chief Jagan Mohan Reddy was the target of Pawan's fiery rhetoric in the run-up to the 2014 polls. That election, the first in divided Andhra Pradesh, was a neck and neck race between the TDP and the YSRC. Pawan's intervention on the TDP-BJP’s side proved the game-changer in the last month of the husting.
Now, Chandrababu Naidu is promising to include Kapus in the BC list — a promise he had made in 2014 campaign itself — in nine months. That seems unlikely. But even if he does, the courts are likely to strike it down on the basis of the not-more-than5- per cent rule. If he still gives the Kapus a quota by cutting down the same of OBCs, he will surely invite the wrath of the latter. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t.
With Naidu caught in a catch-22 situation, Jagan would of course dearly love to make it hotter still. He could support Mudragada and be in pole position by the next elections. When that happens, would Pawan then still be content playing the part-time politician?
5. Tuni is a decisive turn in AP politics
Finally, despite these factors, Pawan Kalyan is an unpredictable man. Emotion, more than anything else, rules him. Recall his dramatic presser when Chiranjeevi’s daughter accused him of threatening her beau? He brought out a revolver in full media glare. Remember his announcement of a Common Man's Protection Force, a kind of good samaritan’s militia? (Nobody knows what happened to it.)
Pawan Kalyan has been known to make high-voltage political appearances and then go off the boil. He set up a political party, Jana Sena, amid high expectations but then announced that it would not contest the polls. He makes a flurry of tweets on behalf of dispossessed farmers in Amaravati but then lapses back into movie making for months thereafter.
But the turn of politics at Tuni this week, may just play his hand. From his reaction to the violence at Tuni, we know that he is still in politics. But characteristically, it was malice towards none and charity for all. He blamed none, neither Mudragada nor Naidu.
But there will come a day when he will have to take sides -- if he wants to play the game at all!