VISAKHAPATNAM: Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu’s appeal to the people, asking them to have more children has triggered debates far and wide.
Decreasing birth rates and aging demography are reasons that Naidu has cited to highlight the need for larger families.
With India set to conduct its long-delayed population census in 2025, TNIE takes a deep dive into the projections on fertility, mortality, population growth, and age distribution, shedding light on demographic shifts that could impact Andhra Pradesh’s future.
According to the Population Projections for India and States 2011-2036 report, Andhra Pradesh’s population is expected to increase slightly to 54.25 million by 2036 from 49.57 million in 2011. Further, the projections reveal that while birth rates, fertility rates, and overall population growth are steadily declining, the death rate is rising (see Table 1).
Explaining what the numbers mean, Professor B Muniswamy, honorary director of the Population Research Centre in Visakhapatnam, said, “The steady decline in the fertility rate reflects broader societal changes, including lifestyle shifts, environmental conditions, and urbanisation.”
Stating that evolving socio-economic conditions also contribute to the declining fertility rate, he noted, “In today’s fast-paced world, people pay less attention to health. Irregular eating and sleeping patterns, along with environmental factors, have impacted overall fertility.”
Highlighting that demographic shifts in Andhra Pradesh reflect broader changes in family structure and economic considerations, Prof. Muniswamy pointed out, “In the past, joint families were more common, providing a support system that is often lacking in today’s nuclear families. People today value independence over communal living, which influences family planning decisions.”
He also remarked that rising living expenses deter many families from having more children. “Living costs are high, and while wealthy families often opt for fewer children, financially disadvantaged families, who may bear the economic burden, tend to have more children,” he noted. Stressing that quality of life should be a priority, he said, “In the past, savings and investments were prioritised. Today, spending is more common, with less focus on long-term financial planning.”
The push for a larger population has political undertones as well, especially in the southern States, where population growth has slowed in contrast to the northern States, considering that population control measures were more stringently implemented.
A retired economics professor, who requested anonymity, explained, “The United States, with a population of 330 million, has a GDP of 26.7 trillion dollars. In comparison, India, with the world’s highest population, ranks fifth globally with a GDP of 3.9 trillion dollars. This shows that population size does not necessarily correlate with economic power.”
Further comparing the demographic and economic disparities between the northern and southern regions of India, he noted that Uttar Pradesh, with a population close to 240 million, receives a significant budget allocation from the Central government due to its size, despite contributing around 9% to India’s GDP. On the other hand, southern states like Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, which contribute more than 4% of the GDP, receive only half of the budget relative to their economic contributions.
“The southern States of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka make up 20% of the population, but contribute around 35% to the national GDP. However, they receive less funding compared to States in the north, where birth rates and population growth are higher,” he observed.
The representation in the Lok Sabha also reflects these demographic disparities. Of the 543 seats, the five southern States hold only 129, with Uttar Pradesh and Bihar alone matching this number.
He opined that a significant political imbalance could emerge between the growing populations in the north and the slower-growing populations in the south if the trend continues to rise.
“This disparity in representation and funding may prompt leaders to advocate for a higher birth rate in southern States, including Andhra Pradesh,” he explained, adding that the goal is to ensure a stable demographic presence and equal political influence in the future.
The economic dimension of population growth is also a factor in the current debates. As of 2023-2024, Andhra Pradesh’s per capita income stands at Rs 2,70,295, an increase from Rs 2,45,582 the previous year, translating to approximately Rs 22,525 per month. While this figure represents economic growth, some experts argue that simply increasing the population will not address broader economic challenges.
“Population alone does not generate income,” stressed the retired professor. “While States in the north benefit from larger budget allocations due to higher populations, the southern States, despite their significant contributions to the economy, receive less support. This imbalance needs to be addressed beyond population counts.”
Speaking to TNIE about how an average couple plans a family, Vinay, a software engineer who is set to get married in November, emphasised that financial stability is a priority for him and his partner. “My partner and I have talked about children, but we’re not planning to start in the next one to two years. Financial stability is a priority for us, not just to meet immediate family needs but also to support long-term goals like education, health, and housing. Additionally, we both have responsibilities to care of our parents, both financially and in terms of service, which we value deeply.”
Elaborating, he said, “Considering the current fast-paced lifestyle, achieving a work-life balance is important, especially as we’d like to be actively involved in raising children. Our goal is to first establish healthy routines that include balanced nutrition, regular exercise, and quality time together. We feel that by preparing ourselves this way, we’ll be better equipped to welcome children without exposing them to the typical challenges that come with an unprepared lifestyle. While we hope to have two children, we’ll ultimately let time and circumstances guide us in that decision.”