GUWAHATI: The Congress is heading into Tuesday’s by-elections in Assam’s Nagaon with the threat of a split in Opposition votes. The party was anticipating a direct contest with the BJP, but MLA Maulana Badruddin Ajmal’s entry into the fray turned the by-election into a triangular contest.
The constituency is bracing for a triangular contest among Debashish Sharma of the BJP, Sibamoni Bora of the Congress and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) chief Ajmal.
The Congress said the AIUDF chief’s entry was part of a BJP-backed strategy to weaken the grand old party by causing the division of Opposition votes.
The by-poll has been necessitated by the resignation of two-time former Congress MP Pradyut Bordoloi who is now the BJP’s Dispur MLA. Prior to him, BJP’s Rajen Gohain had held the seat for four straight terms from 1999 to 2019.
Muslims account for an estimated 55-60% of the voters in Nagaon, which emerged as a Muslim-majority seat following the 2023 delimitation exercise.
Interestingly, the AIUDF had announced in August that former All Assam Minorities Students’ Union president Rejaul Karim Sarkar would be its candidate for Nagaon. However, Ajmal’s sudden entry into the poll fray complicated the Congress’s electoral calculations.
As a matter of fact, the AIUDF is also facing a depleting popularity in Assam’s Bengali Muslim-dominated constituencies. The party had finished with just two seats in this year’s Assembly elections, with a large majority of the Muslim-majority seats going to the Congress.
With Muslim votes increasingly shifting towards the Congress, observers doubt whether Ajmal’s presence can significantly split the anti-BJP votes in Nagaon.
As for the Congress, it is fighting for survival. The party, which ruled Assam for three consecutive terms from 2001 to 2016, has not won a single election since 2014 following the BJP’s emergence as a powerhouse. The Congress had won 19 of the 126 seats in this year’s Assembly elections with 18 of them in minority areas.
Sharma, the BJP candidate, served as the Nagaon Deputy Commissioner before taking voluntary retirement on September 3. He joined the BJP on September 8.
The Nagaon parliamentary seat is made up of eight Assembly constituencies, five in Nagaon and three in adjoining Morigaon districts. There are over 19 lakh eligible voters. The results of the by-elections will be declared on October 9.