As electioneering in bypolls on April 9 reaches its crescendo, the Congress and BJP leaders are pulling out all the stops to win the seats. Chief Minister Siddaramaiah is leading a high-octane campaign in Davangere South and Bagalkot assembly segments. He is set to give the final push to his party’s candidates before the campaigning ends on Tuesday.
While top leaders from the national and regional parties are battling it out in the high-stakes assembly polls in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala, the results of which could impact national politics, Siddaramaiah and his team are fighting their own battle in the two seats in the Central and North Karnataka regions. The CM is joined by DyCM and State Congress president DK Shivakumar, who splits his time between Karnataka and Assam. Shivakumar is part of the Congress team, led by Wayanad MP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, overseeing the party’s strategy for Assam polls.
The outcome in the bypolls in two seats in the state will not have any direct bearing on the Congress government, which enjoys a massive majority with 134 legislators in the 224-member state assembly. However, it’s a must-win election for the CM, as both seats were won by the Congress in 2023, and the Siddaramaiah government’s performance is the central theme of campaign by both parties, even as local factors play a major role.
Ensuring the party candidates’ victory in both seats could bolster his image and help reassert his authority within the party, as the leadership change issue could resurface after the assembly polls in five states. The voices for change could become shriller if the party performs poorly even in one of the two constituencies. However, for the high command, the bypoll result will not be a deciding factor in the issue of leadership change.
The CM has also made it clear that there is no link between the leadership issue and the bypolls results, and that they would abide by the high command’s directions.
Generally, the ruling parties have an advantage in bypolls. The Congress is also banking on the sympathy factor, as the election in Davangere was necessitated by the death of a veteran leader, Shamanur Shivashankarappa. His 27-year-old grandson, Samarth Shamanur, is the party candidate. Samarth’s father, SS Mallikarjun, is an MLA from the neighbouring Davangere North Assembly segment and a minister in the Siddaramaiah cabinet; his mother, Dr Prabha Mallikarjun, is an MP from the Davangere Lok Sabha seat. In Bagalkot, Umesh Meti is the Congress candidate in the elections after the death of his father and Congress MLA HY Meti.
As things stand, Congress seems to have an advantage in Davangere that has significant voters from the minority community, close to 60,000, followed by Lingayats and the Kuruba community. The party managed to take minority community leaders into confidence after they expressed displeasure over the denial of a ticket to their community leaders. Since 2008, when the constituency was carved out, Shamanur Shivashankarappa had won all four elections. His margin of victory in 2008 was 6,358, and in the last election it was 27,888 votes. Shivashankarappa’s son and Samarth’s father, Mallikarjun, also won the Davangere North seat with a comfortable margin of 24,472 votes in 2023.
On its part, the BJP appears to be relying on former chief minister BS Yediyurappa and his son and party state president BY Vijayendra to woo Lingayat voters, while hoping that the Muslim community voters may not show much enthusiasm to come out and vote for the Congress, after the initial fiasco over ticket allotment. The former CM, who campaigned for his party’s candidate Srinivas Dasakariyappa in Davangere, is confident of the BJP’s victory in both the seats.
In Davangere and Bagalkot, the BJP leaders’ campaign is centred around Siddaramaiah’s government’s performance. Their litany of charges against the state government includes increased borrowing, inefficient implementation of the guarantee schemes, price rise and uncertainty over leadership issues. The CM, on his part, is responding to each of those allegations while also highlighting his government’s achievements.
In Bagalkot, the BJP perceives victory to be within striking distance. It is banking on the dominant Lingayat community and urban electorate, while Congress is relying on the AHINDA factor and guarantee schemes.
In 2023, BJP leader and three-term MLA Veeranna Charantimath lost to Meti with a thin margin of 5,878 votes, and in 2013, he lost with a margin of 2,900 votes. The narrow margins of victory in this constituency indicate that it can go either way. The BJP is making all-out efforts, and many state leaders, including Union ministers, are campaigning aggressively. Even MLA Basangouda Patil Yatnal, though expelled from the BJP, has thrown his weight behind Charantimath.
BJP’s performance will be crucial for Vijayendra to cement his leadership. Some see it as a good tactical opportunity to prove his mettle in the Lingayat-dominated seats. But a lot is at stake for the CM.