BENGALURU: Winter is coming, but Karnataka is yet to catch the chill.
Usually, winter sets in the state from mid-October with the onset of north east monsoon accompanied by northerly and north easterly winds. But the wind pattern has been different this season, keeping things pretty warm.
The forecast is that winter will be two to three Degree Celsius less cooler this season.
According to weather experts, this is because of a severe El Nino effect, prolonged summer, and poor south west and north east monsoons. The unruly weather pattern has also hit crop yield very hard.
A senior India Meteorological Department (IMD) official said that temperatures start to dip from October onwards but this time it has been delayed. “Seasons have changed drastically this year and their long term impact is yet to be studied.”
N Puviarasan, Director, IMD Bengaluru, said the rain which most parts of Karnataka experienced over the last couple of days was because of circulation over the Comorin area. “Now there is no rain in sight. Dry weather will prevail.
The maximum (day time) temperature will be near normal, with a rise by around 2 Degree Celsius, against the normal of 27 Degree Celsius. The minimum (night time) temperature will also be near normal around 18 Degree Celsius.”
Puviarasanadded that temperatures will start to dip when north-easterly winds will prevail, which are, presently, not in sight.
MS Divakara, Director, Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC), cited the severe impact of El Nino for the delayed winter. “Till March 2027, there will be a super El Nino.
This has also impacted crop patterns in the state. The Rabi crop, which depends highly on soil moisture, has been hit.”
Prof MB Rajegowda, an agrometeorologist, said winter in the state is usually from mid-October to February. “This year the onset is likely to be from the third week of November and it will not be intense.
All seasons depend upon monsoon patterns, which have been impacted this year.”
According to IMD data, there was a 32% deficit in the south west monsoon, the highest ever, while north east monsoon fell short by 49%.
Prof J Srinivasan, distinguished scientist, Divecha Centre for Climate Change, IISc, said that due to the impact of Super El Nino winter will be warmer than normal and there may be heat waves in March and April.
“This will impact wheat crop yield. In October, average maximum temperature was 32.43 Degree Celsius, the highest ever recorded. The month also recorded an average minimum temperature of 20.83 Degree Celsius, which was the fifth highest since 1901.”
Prof Thimmegowda MN, Prof and Head, University of Agricultural Sciences (UAS), Bengaluru, said that cooler temperature during winter leads to better yields of chickpea, safflower, mustard and sunflower.
“This year against a target of 24.5 lakh hectare yield, only 11.10 lakh hectare yield is seen, a deficit of 45%. Rising temperature and deficit rainfall have led to 70% crop loss this year in the state,” he said.