THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: After witnessing the ‘driest August’ in over a century, Kerala can heave a sigh of relief as the state is likely to receive a decent spell of rain in September. The India Meteorology Department (IMD) has sounded yellow alert for three districts — Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, and Alappuzha — on Sunday.
An orange alert has been issued for Alappuzha on Monday and Tuesday, and for Idukki on Wednesday. As per weather forecast, Kerala is expected to receive an average rainfall of 25cm-30cm in September.
However, according to weather experts, the rain in September — the final month of southwest monsoon — is unlikely to compensate for the deficit in this season. The weather office had sounded yellow alert for seven districts on Saturday.
“The monsoon variability is increasing. In the past 10 years, Kerala received excess rain only for three years — 2013, 2018 and 2019. Barring these, the state experienced rain deficit. In 2016, the deficit was 35%, while it’s 48% so far this year,” said Abhilash S, associate professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Cochin University of Science and Technology.
‘Rain in Sept unlikely to compensate for deficit’
Abhilash said the duration between spells is increasing. “Kerala should be prepared for extreme situations. We may experience drought, and at the same time isolated heavy rainfall, which will lead to flash floods and landslides. Though rainy days are declining, sudden downpour should be anticipated,” he said.
“Across India, there is only an 8-9% deficit in the seasonal rainfall, which is below normal. But when it comes to Kerala, the deficit is 48%. This August was the driest in the past 123 years. Even if we receive good rain in September, it won’t be sufficient to compensate for the deficit in August. We need to be prepared for drought situations, just like we are for monsoon floods,” added Abhilash.