THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The Geological Survey of India (GSI) has expressed dissatisfaction with the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) for using their experimental landslide forecast data to counter Union Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah’s claims about providing early warnings to Kerala.
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan in his rebuttal said the GSI issued a green alert for July 30 and 31, indicating a possibility of minor landslides or rock bursts, on July 29 afternoon. However, the landslide on July 30 morning turned out to be the deadliest so far. GSI officials clarified that the warning provided to KSDMA and the District Disaster Management Authority (DDMA) was part of an ongoing experiment and was not intended for public dissemination.
“The experimental landslide forecast for Wayanad was meant solely for validation and ground testing and should not be used publicly. It was restricted to SDMA and DDMA for feedback purposes,” said a GSI statement. As the nodal agency for landslide studies, GSI emphasised that this forecasting model has only been in the experimental phase since June and requires extensive ground testing over multiple monsoon seasons before it can be fully operational.
GSI recently implemented landslide forecasting in Darjeeling, Kalimpong, and the Nilgiris, but only after extensive ground testing. “Operational forecasting in these areas began on July 19, 2024, following validation in an experimental mode since 2020,” the statement noted.
The forecasting models rely on rainfall data provided by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD), with landslide thresholds based on historical data.
“Between July 26 and 30, 2024, GSI issued bulletins on all days except July 28 when the system was down. The GSI landslide forecasts were low on all days for Wayanad except a moderate forecast on July 26 for Vythiri taluk and July 30 for Vythiri and Mananthavady taluks,” said GSI.
‘NEED EXTENSIVE GROUND TESTING’
GSI emphasised that this forecasting model requires extensive ground testing over multiple monsoon seasons before it can be fully operational
GSI landslide forecasts were low on all days for Wayanad except a moderate forecast on
July 26 for Vythiri taluk and July 30 for Vythiri and Mananthavady taluks