What makes the BJP special this Parliament election in Kerala is that for the first time in the history of the state’s electoral politics the party is no longer ‘untouchable’. Now, any UDF or LDF leader could join the saffron party without humiliation. For the first time, voters in the state feel their votes could help the party win more than one seat.
Setting aside the Hindutva agenda the party has been using in the pan Indian electoral arena, in Kerala, the BJP is holding one manthra tight -- ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’. And at least in three constituencies the leadership can say with confidence the candidates, if elected, will be ministers in the next Modi cabinet.
However, the main drawback the BJP faces in Kerala is that the far right nationalist party has failed to present its own agenda in front of the voters. This time around too, the picture is not different. On the one hand, the party is trying to cash in on ‘Modi’s Guarantee’, and on the other, it is also expecting the anti-incumbency factor against the LDF government to play out. In addition, the party is staring at the allegation that, even after being in power at the Centre, it is trying to block the state’s progress.
Although the party has attracted leaders from the Congress and other parties, the BJP continues to face a shortage of reliable leaders. According to insiders, the big challenge the state unit is facing is that despite being successful in getting the support of the Nair community as its main vote base, its efforts to garner support from the powerful Ezhava community remains a distant hope even after the formation of the Bharath Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS). This election will also be a test of BJP’s Christian outreach programme.
Strengths
Modi Ki Guarantee
BJP’s continuity narrative
A relatively weak UDF
Weaknesses
Lack of strong and credible state leaders
No proper political narrative at state level
Unfamiliar candidates
Inability to make inroads into community organisations
Opportunities
Probability of getting Union ministership
Christian outreach
Probability of UDF & LDF joining hands at Centre
Threats
Delay in candidate selection
Opposition by Muslim minority over CAA
(Interview with K Surendran)
‘Stand with Modi for development’ is our poll plank: Surendran
How do you assess the current political scenario in Kerala?
The situation in Kerala this time around is unique. Both the LDF and the UDF are partners in the INDI Alliance. Even if you give them your votes, they will end up sitting in Opposition. The talking point in this election is to ‘stand with Modi for development’.
How do you assess BJP’s chances?
NDA is in a position, organisationally and politically, to win in several seats in Kerala this time. In 2019, there was a thought among the public that Rahul Gandhi might become the prime minister. That delusion is now over. People know that Congress won’t come to power. Now people of Kerala have confidence in Modi and his concept of development.
In 2019, though the BJP took up key issues like Sabarimala women entry, it worked in UDF’s favour. What’s the situation now?
Then, the UDF succeeded in turning people’s protest against the LDF government and Pinarayi Vijayan into votes in their favour. However, the UDF has disintegrated now. People see BJP as a force to reckon with. So, the BJP would get the anti-incumbency vote this time. The political situation is in our favour.
What are the key factors that the BJP is banking on?
‘Modi Ki Guarantee’ is the main point of discussion in Kerala too. The LDF government failed to achieve any progress in the field of infrastructure and social security. Modi on the other hand recorded tremendous progress in these fields. People now realise that.
Both the LDF and the UDF have been harping on CAA as one of the major campaign topics. Will the BJP be able to resist the same?
No one among the minority communities in Kerala feels that the CAA will strip them of their citizenship. If the LDF and the UDF make it their poll plank, it will ultimately turn in favour of BJP. Let them prove that CAA would strip the citizenship of any Muslim citizen of India.
LDF convener stated that it’s going to be a fight between the LDF and the BJP. Your assessment.
It is not the situation in all the 20 Parliamentary constituencies. In some, the fight is between the LDF and the BJP and in others, it is between the BJP and the UDF.