THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: After June ended with a 34 percent rainfall deficit, the southwest monsoon is likely to intensify over Kerala till mid July. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Kerala is likely to witness intermittent spells of moderate to heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds over the next week. The IMD attributes the subdued monsoon outlook to the gradual strengthening of El Nino conditions over the Pacific.
“Kerala is expected to remain in the below-normal rainfall category during July. While the state is likely to witness an active spell of monsoon rains during the first two weeks of the month, rainfall is expected to taper off in the latter half,” said an official of IMD.
On average, Kerala receives 648.2 mm of rainfall during June, but this year the state recorded only about 66 per cent of its normal rainfall, resulting in a 34 per cent deficit.
According to IMD, the first fortnight of July could bring widespread rainfall, aided by the persistence of strong monsoon conditions and the likely formation of a low-pressure area over the northwest Bay of Bengal. “The system is expected to enhance rainfall activity across Kerala, with northern districts likely to receive the heaviest showers,” said the official. IMD has issued an orange alert for Kannur and Kasaragod districts and yellow alerts for Alappuzha, Ernakulam, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram, Kozhikode and Wayanad districts on Wednesday.
According to IMD, after mid July, rainfall is expected to decline again. “In June, the El Nino conditions were weak and now gradually strengthening to a moderate El NIno during July and August. By September, the El Nino conditions will become stronger. This is going to have an adverse impact during the latter half of the southwest monsoon,” the official said.