BHOPAL: Of the three Assembly seats across three states that went to bypolls on Thursday, the Datia Assembly constituency in northern Madhya Pradesh recorded the highest voter turnout, with 71.44% polling till 6 pm.
The turnout, however, was around nine percentage points lower than the 80.2% voting recorded in the 2023 Assembly elections, when Congress's Rajendra Bharti defeated three-time sitting BJP MLA and then state Home Minister Narottam Mishra by a margin of over 7,700 votes.
In fact, the polling percentage recorded till 6 pm was the lowest on the seat since the 2003 Assembly elections, when 69.6% voting was reported.
The constituency had recorded 75.59% polling in the 2013 elections and 73.13% in the 2008 polls. The seat is home to the world-famous Goddess Pitambara Temple.
The comparatively low voter turnout has made the outcome of the bypoll more difficult to predict, particularly as the seat is witnessing a three-cornered contest between two-time former Congress MLA and erstwhile royal family member Kunwar Ghanshyam Singh, BJP's first-time candidate Ashutosh Tiwari and Azad Samaj Party (KR) candidate Damodar Singh Yadav.
Kunwar Ghanshyam Singh, who won the seat for the Congress in 1993 and 2003, is banking on the respect enjoyed by the erstwhile royal family among voters. He is also hoping to benefit from the dissatisfaction among a large section of local BJP workers following the denial of the party ticket to three-time former MLA and 2023 runner-up Narottam Mishra. In addition, Singh is confident about his prospects as BJP candidate Ashutosh Tiwari is a first-time contestant with an insignificant base among Datia voters.
Ashutosh Tiwari, on the other hand, is particularly banking on the support of women and the business community in Datia town, a large section of whom had silently supported the decision to deny Mishra the ticket.
However, what could be a concern for Tiwari is that more men (74.09%) than women (68.48%) cast their votes in Thursday's bypoll.
With the local BJP organisation largely comprising supporters of Narottam Mishra, only the August 3 results will reveal the extent to which the party cadre worked for Tiwari's victory.
The third candidate, Damodar Singh Yadav, who was the first to begin campaigning in the constituency, is hoping to build a winning combination of Scheduled Caste and Yadav votes despite Chief Minister Mohan Yadav actively campaigning for the BJP candidate.
Meanwhile, two former MLAs — BJP veteran Narottam Mishra and 2023 Congress winner Rajendra Bharti, whose disqualification following his conviction in a bank fraud case necessitated the bypoll — may ultimately prove crucial, with reports suggesting that their supporters could dent the prospects of the two main contenders.
According to poll watchers, BJP candidate Ashutosh Tiwari's overdependence on cadres loyal to Narottam Mishra, which resulted in him failing to emerge from Mishra's larger-than-life persona, may hamper his electoral prospects. This is particularly because a section of Datia's voters, who viewed the denial of a ticket to Mishra as a positive development, are reportedly unhappy with Tiwari's perceived dependence on Mishra and his supporters.
Another important factor in the event of a close contest could be the voting preference of young voters in the wake of the recent Gen Z protests against the Narendra Modi-led government at the Centre.
Meanwhile, on polling day, the Congress alleged bogus voting in the Jigna and Sirol areas.