Cuttack-Barabati seems to have locked into a tight contest between sitting MLA and BJD leader Debashis Samantray and Congress city president Md Mokim even as BJP could queer the play, thanks to a late surge.
Facing anti-incumbency Debashis is banking on the craze for Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik and the strong organisational network of BJD to see him through in this elections while Mokim leads the onslaught on the plank of crumbling urban infrastructure and the failure of BJD in improving civic conditions in the millennium city.
With stakes high, both have unleashed aggressive campaigns to woo voters. The last day of campaigning on Tuesday was marked by a massive roadshow by Debashis accompanied by Cuttack MP candidate Bhartruhari Mahtab, a host of leaders and celebrities like Arindam, Sabyasachi and Mihir Das. Mokim accompanied by Congress MP candidate actor Aparajita engaged in a equal show of strength taking a motorcycle rally touching all parts of the constituency.According to political pundits, the fight for the prestigious seat is set to be keen with minority votes and slum dwellers key to the outcome.
A possible shift of Muslim votes that had consolidated behind the BJD since 2009 and a disgruntled slum population could tilt the scales.
Muslim voters constitute more than 20 per cent of the around two lakh voters in the constituency.
The BJD hopes to hold on to the vote-bank, riding on the charisma of Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik who held a roadshow in the minority dominated areas recently, but it also will favour a sharp division among the four Muslim candidates in fray.
But emergence of Mokim as a strong challenger to Debashis could effect a major shift of the minority votes behind him.
Chances of voting for the community member in Mokim on the basis of winnability factor has increased in the last few days, said an observer.Mokim, however, underplays the vote-bank.
“There is a strong anti-incumbency against the BJD across all sections that is sure to benefit us. The Cuttack Municipal Corporation (CMC) elections earlier this year has reflected the decline of BJD votes with its victory margin, across 31 wards constituting the Cuttack-Barabati seat, falling from 25,000 votes in 2009 to 15,000. The swing against BJD is far more pronounced in these Assembly elections,” he says. Disgruntlement among the vital slum dweller votes, who again constitute over 20 per cent, could queer the pitch.
“There is serious discontent over evictions without making alternative arrangements and lack of provisioning of basic civic amenities to the slums.
But, if this reflects in the voting pattern across the around 300 slums in the city remains to be seen”, says president of All Odisha Jhopadpatti Mahasangha-Ekata, Brundaban Azad.
Meanwhile, the BJP which is traditionally strong among the middle and upper class sections could also corner a substantial chunk of votes. Though it has failed to put up a strong candidate after former Minister Samir Dey was elevated to the Lok Sabha seat, the Modi factor could win Pradip Swain a respectable position in the contest.