BHUBANESWAR: Tropical cyclone Fani, first of this season, has not just kept the weather experts guessing but also left forecasting agencies engaged. National forecaster IMD has maintained that the storm, carrying wind speed of 185 km per hour, will cross the coast between Gopalpur and Chandbali with the landfall point expected closer to Puri.
However, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) has been changing the projected path. On Tuesday afternoon, it had predicted the extremely severe cyclonic storm to cross the land near Puri and pass through the coastal pockets of Kendrapara and Bhadrak further north.
However, by evening, the projected course of the cyclone was changed. The JTWC shows the projected path over Chilika, closer to Krushnaprasad block in Puri district, heading into the land and then moving in a north-north-east direction towards Ganjam, Nayagarh, Khurda, Cuttack and further north.
These two paths have different implications. The earlier projected landfall near Puri would mean the storm will carry wind speed of 180 km with gusts reaching 205 km per hour. However, if it moves into the land over Chilika, the obstructions on the land may weaken it as well as the gale speed to about 120-150 km per hour. Special Relief Commissioner Bishnupada Sethi also informed about the slightly changed course as predicted by the US agency.
Eminent weather scientist Eric Holthaus quoted the JTWC prediction and said, the latest models still show cyclone Fani strengthening to Category 4 just before landfall. “The landfall location has shifted westward in the last 12 hours, reducing the risk to Bangladesh but increasing the risk to Andhra Pradesh,” he tweeted.
However, Director of Centre of Environment and Climate (CEC), Bhubaneswar, Sarat Chandra Sahu said the JTWC prediction has been slightly off the mark given the frequent change in the course of the tropical storm.