BHUBANESWAR: The Rath Yatra of Lord Jagannath could witness rainy conditions as a fresh low pressure area is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal next week.
An upper-air cyclonic circulation is expected to form over north-west Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of West Bengal and Odisha coasts. Under its influence, the low pressure area is likely to form over the same region around July 14, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
Weather models indicate the system may intensify further into a well marked low pressure area on July 15 and move west-northwestwards. The car festival starts July 16. In the run up, light to moderate rainfall or thundershower activity at many places in Odisha for four days starting from Monday (July 13), the regional met office said.
The last weather system over the Bay of Bengal intensified into a depression and transformed the rainfall deficit in Odisha into surplus. The state recorded 341.9 mm rains between June 1 and July 10 as against its average of 304.2 mm, a departure of 12 per cent.
So far, 15 districts have received normal rains, six large excess, five excess and only four are in the deficient category. Nabarangpur is in the deficit zone with 36 per cent shortfall, Kalahandi (-31 pc) and Sundargarh and Deogarh (-20 pc each).
The next low pressure area will be crucial for the proper kharif crops. According to crop weather watch, cotton, kharif oilseeds and pulses sown coverage continues to be well below last year’s figure. Against the target of 2.43 lakh hectare, so far 0.38 lakh hactare has been achieved by July 5 against last year’s coverage of 1.22 lakh hectare.
The fresh spell of rains may improve soil moisture levels, which is crucial for paddy. Government data showed that soil moisture has been below last 10 year’s average in the state.
Private weather forecaster Skymet said, the cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over north Bay of Bengal around July 13. Subsequently, subject to the weakening of typhoon Bavi over the western Pacific, the circulation may consolidate into a fresh low pressure area over the same region. Though there is no certainty regarding its track as of now, it is likely to follow a path north of the recent systems rather than retracing the track of the previous depression.
“If this scenario materialises, widespread monsoon rainfall is expected over West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and all the North-eastern states. The peripheral rainfall is also expected to extend into north Chhattisgarh, north Odisha, east Madhya Pradesh and north coastal Andhra Pradesh,” it added.