CHENNAI: If this Assembly election is an existential battle for AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami, it will be a defining moment for DMK president and Chief Minister MK Stalin. For Stalin, the fight it is not about mere survival, but continuity. Since the DMK first came to power in 1967, the party has never been able to win a consecutive term. Breaking the jinx is the single biggest challenge before Stalin.
Unlike in 2021, where anti-incumbency against the AIADMK worked in favour of the DMK, in 2026 Stalin heads into the polls with the full weight of the successes — and failures — of his five-year term behind him. In the last five years, he carefully built a narrative of the “Dravidian model” of governance, through social welfare schemes, including free bus travel to women, honorarium for women heads of households, scholarship schemes for college students and a breakfast scheme for school children. These schemes have helped the DMK consolidate key voter segments, particularly women and economically weaker sections, to some extent.
But elections are not only fought over governance. The Stalin-led DMK government faces criticism on law and order, corruption, and dynastic politics. These three issues have been kept alive in public discourse by the opposition. The AIADMK-led NDA in Tamil Nadu has projected the elevation of Stalin’s son Udhayanidhi as a sign of family dominance in the DMK and in the government. While such criticism is not new for the DMK and may not affect its core vote share, it plays a role in the perception battle, which is crucial in a closely contested four-cornered election.
Stalin has sought to counter these charges by highlighting data and testimonies of beneficiaries of welfare schemes. He has also sought to frame the election as an ideological contest by claiming the fight is between the DMK’s Tamil Nadu and the NDA’s Delhi. This narrative is an attempt to consolidate regional pride and federal sentiment against the BJP and AIADMK. Although this has worked for the party in the past, especially in the Lok Sabha elections, one has to wait and watch if the ideological gambit will douse the anti-incumbency sentiment against the DMK government.
While the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance seems to have an edge in the alliance arithmetic, friction with alliance parties over seat-sharing could be a temporary setback in the run-up to the elections. On the other hand, the opposition, including the NDA, Seeman’s NTK and actor Vijay’s newly-formed TVK, is more scattered and is likely to split the anti-incumbency and anti-DMK votes.
For decades, the DMK has been voted into power largely by consolidating anti-incumbency votes against the Congress in its initial years and the AIADMK in the later years. In this election, Stalin’s task is not just to retain his base, but to ensure that discontent among the people does not consolidate and aggregate into a decisive anti-DMK wave in favour of any single opposition front.
After decades in the shadow of his father and former Chief Minister M Karunanidhi, Stalin first became Chief Minister in 2021. Only a second consecutive win in the Assembly polls will ensure he is recognised as not just an inheritor of his father’s legacy but rather as a leader who has built one of his own. On the other hand, a loss would revive questions of his leadership of the party and its performance in government.