CHENNAI: The twin bypoll victories have given the ruling TVK a boost to face bypolls to other vacant seats, while DMK finishing second in both constituencies without an alliance has put pressure on the AIADMK, which came third in both seats. For TVK, the victories suggest that there is no major anti-incumbency against the government in these constituencies as defectors from the AIADMK have won. For the DMK, the results offer a morale boost and an opportunity to challenge the TVK as a strong principal opposition party — without most of its former allies who are now in the TVK camp.
In Dharapuram, TVK’s votes increased from 46,438 in the Assembly election to 66,841 in the bypoll, while in Madurantakam, they rose from 62,090 to 74,048.
Political analyst and assistant professor Sunilkumar said that the victories could encourage TVK to give tickets to more leaders who resign from other parties and join TVK.
But the results also raise a question: how much of TVK’s success comes from Vijay’s popularity and how much from the local networks of the candidates? Sunilkumar said TVK was moving beyond Vijay’s personal appeal and beginning to speak the language of established Dravidian parties.
“Its references to caste representation and social justice, along with its efforts to build community-level networks, point to a shift in its political approach,” Sunilkumar pointed out, referring to Minister Aadhav Arjuna’s speech during campaign that the party has as many as 16 MLAs from Vanniyar community. For TVK, according to political analyst R Chandrasekar, the challenge is to build a strong organisation that can win even in constituencies where it does not have leaders with an established support base. “Now that they have won in the two constituencies, TVK will be able to occupy the space of the AIADMK in the state,” Chandrasekar said.
Nevertheless, for the opposition DMK, finishing second in both constituencies without a major alliance is an encouraging sign. Chandrasekar said that the DMK has shown that it can remain competitive on its own, even in seats that are not considered its strongholds.
“With DMK looking to restructure its party’s grassroots structure, more youngsters could join and the results are reassuring for the party,” Chandrasekar said. In Dharapuram, the DMK’s vote share marginally declined from 64,373 (32.17%) in April to 57,370 (31.78%). In Madurantakam, DMK’s vote share marginally declined from 59,838 (30.13%) in April to 54,008 (29.25%). “TVK approached the elections in the same manner in which the DMK and AIADMK traditionally approach elections. They have used the methods of established parties to retain political power,” he said.