In the 2016 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, the AIADMK, led by then general secretary J Jayalalithaa, secured 40.77% of the total votes polled. Since then, the data shows the AIADMK's vote share fell to 33.29% in 2021. It plunged further to 21.21% in the April 2026 Assembly elections.
Currently, the party stares at an uncertain future.
Political scientist Prof Ramu Manivannan says the AIADMK has been a "sinking ship" since Jayalalithaa's death in December 2016.
The party general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswamy while greeting workers on the Dravidian major's entry into its 55th year on Saturday, recalled Jayalalithaa's historic declaration that "even after a hundred years, this movement will function only for the people."
At a time when the party stands at a critical crossroads, Palaniswami called upon the cadres to work with renewed vigour to turn Jayalalithaa's vision into reality.
According to former AIADMK spokesperson Apsara Reddy, the party's ailment today is a fundamental crisis of leadership, vision, and fresh thinking.
2026 has been another difficult year for the AIADMK. The Dravidian party, which is part of the NDA, is licking its wounds after setbacks in the April elections and the October 6 by-elections to two assembly constituencies.
AIADMK could win only 47 seats in the April elections, coming third behind the TVK and the DMK. The TVK emerged as the largest party with 108 seats and came to power.
Following the poll debacle, in which the Vijay-led fledgling party scored a stunning victory, several former AIADMK leaders and MLAs joined the ruling TVK.
By the end of June, six AIADMK legislators resigned and joined TVK. On October 13, the Madras High Court upheld Assembly Speaker JCD Prabhakar's decision to accept the resignations of the six legislators.
The AIADMK is mulling to move the Supreme Court against the HC order.
AIADMK finished third in the October Madurantakam and Dharapuram by-elections. The AIADMK vote share in Dharapuram fell from 40.56% in April to 25.08%, and in Madurantakam, it fell from 34.95% in April to about 25.61%.
Despite the setbacks, AIADMK clearly retains organisational assets and a significant electoral constituency. However, its recent performance raises questions about whether those assets are translating into effective mobilisation, especially among younger voters and in constituencies where TVK has gained ground. The party has said it intends to restructure its organisation and strengthen youth outreach. The sooner it does, the good for the party.
However, there is a problem. A section of leaders continue to express displeasure with Palaniswami's leadership style, which has come under scrutiny, says Ramu Manivannan.
Today, the AIADMK lacks a charismatic leader like party founder M G Ramachandran or Jayalalithaa. Palaniswamy is a strong leader, but without a platform. "A leader needs a platform. But Palaniswamy is standing on a stool because of the BJP," Ramu Manivannan added.
As a leader, Edappadi has strongly resisted ally BJP whenever necessary. However, according to Ramu Manivannan, the BJP, in its bid to gain a foothold in the state, has found a tacit ally in the ruling TVK to finally scuttle the Dravidian political culture that has reigned supreme in the state for nearly six decades. The BJP is now using the TVK to drive a wedge in the AIADMK.
"The TVK is trying to do to the AIADMK, with the help of the BJP, what the Congress did to the Janata Party in terms of disintegrating the party and aims to swallow up the party's human resources and infrastructure wealth, like the party offices and buildings," he said.
He further points out that leaders who abandoned the party, including VK Sasikala and TTV Dhinakaran, took with them a large chunk of caste-based voters. This has weakened the party's vote share and appeal. But this is not the only key factor for the AIADMK's current plight.
Apsara Reddy said that the AIADMK appears increasingly disconnected from public aspirations, particularly among the younger generation, and even from the sentiments of its own cadre. The party is making decisions that neither inspire confidence nor reflect ground realities.
The departure of several senior leaders has also cost the party many committed, hardworking grassroots functionaries who formed the organisation's backbone. Those who remain are increasingly disillusioned, lacking both a clear political direction and a leadership that can motivate and mobilise them, she said.
A political party cannot survive on its legacy alone. It needs dynamic leadership, ideological clarity, organisational energy and the ability to connect with a changing electorate. Unfortunately, the AIADMK seems to be struggling on all these fronts. What is most concerning is not merely the erosion of its leadership, but the gradual loss of enthusiasm, confidence and purpose among the very cadre who once made it such a formidable political force, she signed off.
In short, the AIADMK's most pressing shortcomings today appear to be in leadership cohesion, organisational unity, electoral momentum and a clear political direction.
To sum up, for a party which has been in power in Tamil Nadu for 30 years (approx.) since its formation on October 17 1972, this is no time for celebration. This is time for introspection.