HYDERABAD: Nearly two years after being voted to power in the state, the ruling Congress faces its first major urban test in the Jubilee Hills byelection -- a contest that is being viewed as a barometer for the government’s standing among middle-class, urban voters.
Essentially, the byelection is crucial for the Congress, and the main Opposition parties -- BRS, and BJP -- as it has potential to set a narrative for the rural and urban local body elections, including prestigious the GHMC polls, which are likely to be held within a year.
The bypoll gains added significance as it comes months after the Congress’ surprise victory in the Secunderabad Cantonment byelection, its first win within the Hyderabad urban limits since the 2023 Assembly elections.
The Jubilee Hills result will indicate if that success was an isolated outcome or part of a gradual shift in urban voter sentiment towards the ruling party.
The segment is an upscale region in Hyderabad city, but when it comes to the Assembly segment, it is a ghettoisation of various communities, and cultures in the narrow lanes of basthis that often experience flow of drainage, flood water and battered roads.
Though a single seat may not alter political equations at the state level, the outcome could signal how Hyderabad’s urban electorate perceives the Congress government’s performance, particularly in a city where the ruling party failed to win a single seat in the 2023 Assembly elections. It is certainly going to be a tough contest between the Congress and BRS, according to political pundits.
Demographically, Jubilee Hills is a different constituency altogether. It has around 33% Muslims in a total of four lakh electorate. The other larger demographic composition is Andhra settlers, predominantly from the Khamma community, also a sizable population of professionals from the IT corridor, Telugu film industry (TFI) and service-sector employees.
Mix of affluent and the poor
It is one of approximately 24 Assembly segments spread in and around the Greater Hyderabad region. The constituency has a mix of gated communities, and dense slum clusters.
The voter turnout in the constituency here typically hovers between 45% and 55%, reflecting the usual urban apathy. It is to be seen if the voter percentage increases in this bypoll, and who would it favour.
In the 2023 Assembly election, BRS’s Maganti Gopinath secured 80,549 votes (43.94%), Congress’s Mohammad Azharuddin polled 64,212 (35.03%), and BJP’s Lankala Deepak Reddy received 25,866 (14.11%). The Congress remained in the second position despite it fielding a Muslim candidate. In the ensuing byelection, the Congress is fielding a Hindu candidate, Naveen Yadav -- a contestant backed by All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). However, it remains to be seen whether the Muslim vote could translate to Congress favour.
BRS is fielding Sunitha, the widow of Maganti Gopinath while the BJP is going to the poll with the same nominee, while Congress replaced Azharuddin with Naveen Yadav.
Incidentally, the BRS held Jubilee Hills seat for three consecutive terms -- 2014, 2018 and 2023. The Congress, despite sweeping rural belts in 2023, continues to struggle in Hyderabad, while the BJP has maintained limited but visible influence.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP’s G Kishan Reddy won the Secunderabad Lok Sabha seat, which includes the Jubilee Hills Assembly constituency. The saffron party, which had secured only 25,866 votes in the Jubilee Hills constituency during the 2023 Assembly elections, managed to get 64,673 votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Unlike in rural pockets where welfare and farm policies dominate, Jubilee Hills voters are raising civic and infrastructure issues. Poor road conditions, drainage problems, garbage clearance and parking shortages are frequent complaints. “The underground drinking water pipelines are sometimes mixing with the drainage water and as a result people are receiving polluted water at times,” said Kolan Venkatesh, a resident of Rahmatnagar.
Traditional support
While the political slugfest is on with the opposition parties attacking the Congress government over non-implementation of promises, the grand old party is maintaining that the government schemes have reached the voters in the constituency. Around 25,935 families avail the Gruha Jyothi free power benefit, 19,658 households receive gas subsidies, and over 14,000 new ration cards have been issued, said Congress MP Chamala Kiran Kumar Reddy.
“Andhra settlers”, who form a considerable section of the electorate, have traditionally supported the BRS, but some observers say their preferences may shift if they sense a changing political tide statewide.
The Muslims traditionally support AIMIM in this segment. But it remains to be seen if the community will vote for the Congress candidate this time since the AIMIM has openly extended its support to Naveen Yadav. It is learnt that a section of Muslims are unhappy with non-allotment of land for a burial ground.
The Congress government has been trying to win the confidence of TFI workforce by making a slew of promises like share in the profits of films, and building a dedicated school for them.
The analysts noted that the voting patterns of these larger communities would decide the election results, setting aside the political narratives. As the Congress is depending on developmental agenda, the Opposition BRS is relying on sentiment and anti-incumbency, it remains to be seen which side the electorate of Jubilee Hills leans.