HYDERABAD: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that El Nino is expected to strengthen from moderate to strong intensity in the coming months, raising the likelihood of below-normal rainfall across Telangana during the remainder of the southwest monsoon.
Addressing the first meeting of the State Expert Committee on ‘El Nino Preparedness; Scientific Assessment to Guide Contingency Planning’ on Wednesday, IMD scientist Dr S Stella said the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is likely to remain neutral, limiting its ability to offset the effects of El Nino.
She cautioned that if El Nino persists, Telangana could face a harsher summer, with more heatwave conditions and greater water stress.
Telangana Planning Board vice-chairman G Chinna Reddy, who chaired the meeting, said the state was experiencing unusual climatic conditions during the current southwest monsoon.
From June 1 till date, Telangana has recorded an overall rainfall deficit of about 30%.
The committee, comprising experts from the IMD, ICRISAT, ICAR-CRIDA, NABARD, agricultural, horticultural and veterinary universities, and other institutions, reviewed scientific assessments on
El Nino, La Nina, sea surface and sub-surface temperature anomalies, the Oceanic Nino Index, the IOD, global atmospheric circulation, rainfall trends, delayed monsoon onset, monsoon breaks, district-wise rainfall distribution and IMD forecasts.
Irrigation Secretary E Sridhar said inflows into most reservoirs remained well below normal and stressed the need to closely monitor rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka, as upstream precipitation would determine water availability in Telangana.
Special Chief Secretary (Energy) Navin Mittal said reduced hydropower generation, rising electricity demand and peak-hour shortages posed fresh challenges for the power sector. He called for prudent electricity consumption, greater use of solar energy and integrated energy planning.
Principal Chief Conservator of Forests Vinay Kumar said prolonged water scarcity could increase stress on wildlife and lead to more human-animal conflict in vulnerable areas.
Director of Agriculture Gopi said rainfall had been highly erratic across the state and that the department was monitoring rainfall, groundwater and irrigation resources to assess changes in cropping patterns and prepare contingency plans.
He said groundwater levels had declined by about one metre compared with the corresponding period last year. Paddy cultivation is expected to decline this season, while acreage under pulses, oilseeds, millets, vegetables and other relatively drought-tolerant crops is likely to increase.
Panchayat Raj Commissioner Divya Devarajan also attended the meeting.