HYDERABAD: Telangana may be headed for a difficult and uncertain monsoon season this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting below-normal rainfall across the South Peninsular region even as parts of the state continue to reel under prolonged heatwave conditions under El Nino effect.
More worrying for the state is the IMD’s June forecast, which indicates that isolated pockets of the state are likely to continue experiencing more heatwave days than normal, even after the official onset of the southwest monsoon season.
The IMD, New Delhi, on Friday released its second-stage long-range forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon, projecting seasonal rainfall at 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), placing the country in the “below-normal” rainfall category.
The revised forecast is slightly lower than the earlier prediction of 92 per cent ±4 per cent, signalling a modest downward revision in the expected intensity of this year’s monsoon.
For Telangana, the outlook appears mixed and increasingly complex. “While some parts of the state, especially central Telangana, including Hyderabad and surrounding districts, are expected to receive excess rainfall of nearly 30% above normal, several northernmost and southernmost districts may witness rainfall deficits ranging between 25 and 30%,” an official with IMD, Hyderabad, GNRS Srinivas Rao, told TNIE.
Meteorologists say this uneven spatial distribution could create serious challenges for agriculture, water management, and reservoir planning across the state.
Unlike previous years, when the southwest monsoon typically became active across Telangana during the first week of June, this year’s onset is expected to be sluggish and delayed.
Normally, the monsoon reaches Kerala in the first week of June and advances into Telangana within five to 10 days. However, since the monsoon has not yet reached Kerala, meteorologists now believe that its arrival over Telangana could be delayed until around June 15.
“Maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across the state through June, particularly in northern and southern districts where heatwave spells may persist for extended periods,” the IMD official added.
The IMD forecast suggests that June rainfall across the country is likely to remain below the 92 per cent threshold, indicating a weak start to the season nationwide.
The South Peninsular region, including Telangana, is expected to be among the most affected areas.
A month ago, several senior meteorologists had expressed hope that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) would strengthen during the monsoon season and help improve rainfall activity over the Indian subcontinent. A positive IOD phase typically supports stronger monsoon circulation and can offset the adverse effects of El Niño.
However, the IMD on Friday said the IOD remains neutral and is likely to stay so through the monsoon season, with no signs of turning positive before September to boost rainfall during the core monsoon months of June, July and August.
El Niño is the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, weakening the atmospheric circulation driving the Indian monsoon.
When the Pacific warms on the eastern side, the circulation that supports monsoon flow towards India becomes weaker; this directly affects how much moisture actually reaches the subcontinent.
The IOD is a climate phenomenon defined by the irregular oscillation of sea-surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean. It alters wind and rainfall patterns, heavily impacting weather systems.