HYDERABAD: If you thought the March-like heat that has tormented us through September and followed us into October would finally ease, think again. The Super El Nino that is driving much of the heat may stay with us well into 2027, and scientists say its effects could linger for months after the Pacific Ocean begins to cool.
Dr Rajeshwar Jonnalagudda, head of Climate Change and Training at EPTRI, said the current El Nino could continue through March or April 2027, with its influence on global temperatures lasting for several months thereafter. That could make 2027 one of the hottest years on record.
The Indian Ocean could have offered some relief. Some meteorologists had expected the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to turn positive around September, with warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea, than in the eastern Indian Ocean, near the Bay of Bengal. But the IOD remains neutral, and scientists now see limited chances of a strong positive phase.
A positive IOD can influence atmospheric circulation and the movement of moisture towards India. During previous El Nino years, including 1994 and 1997, a positive IOD was associated with more favourable rainfall conditions over India. With the IOD currently neutral, however, there is less certainty that it will counter the effects of El Nino.
That could have implications for Telangana, where reduced rainfall during the latest monsoon has already left over 200 mandals facing drought-like conditions. Scientists had warned of the possibility of deficient rainfall, but the extent of preparation on the ground remains a concern.
“That is precisely where proactive planning is needed,” Jonnalagudda said. “We could also see record global average temperatures over the coming year, triggering extreme weather events and leading to severe heat across India during the summer of 2027.”
The Hyderabad-based Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), in its recent bulletins, has also indicated that warming in the central Pacific could persist through May 2027, potentially extending its influence well beyond the 2026 southwest monsoon.
The IOD, however, could still turn positive from October, some meteorologists said. What remains uncertain is whether it will become strong enough to have a meaningful effect on weather conditions over India.
Ocean temperatures could also influence weather systems over the Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon cyclone season. GNRS Srinivas Rao, a meteorologist with IMD Hyderabad, said warmer sea-surface waters provide the heat and moisture that help weather systems intensify, while cooler waters are generally less favourable for major cyclone development.
“Therefore, a positive IOD accompanied by relatively cooler Bay of Bengal waters could limit the intensification of certain cyclonic systems along the eastern coast,” he said. “However, October and November remain favourable months for low-pressure areas and cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. The expected IOD conditions will not rule out such systems, but they could influence their development and intensity.”
Srinivas Rao said ocean temperatures do not change rapidly across large regions and that warming and cooling cycles can take months, depending on atmospheric conditions. As a result, ocean-temperature anomalies can continue to influence weather and climate even after they first develop.