HYDERABAD: Telangana is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in September, according to the latest monthly weather outlook released by the IMD. The forecast, issued by the Meteorological Centre in Hyderabad, indicates that most parts of the state could experience a rainfall deficit as the southwest monsoon enters its final phase.
The IMD’s assessment, based on probabilistic climate models and tercile probability maps, indicates a higher likelihood of rainfall remaining below the Long Period Average (LPA) across Telangana. Large parts of the state have been placed in zones showing a strong probability of deficient rainfall during the month.
The forecast is in line with the broader national outlook, which expects September rainfall across India to be below normal, at less than 91% of the long-period average. While parts of the Himalayan region, northeastern India and southern peninsular India may receive above-normal rainfall, much of the country is expected to see subdued monsoon activity.
Meteorologists attributed the expected decline largely to strengthening El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to GNRS Srinivas Rao, sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific remain above normal, indicating a strong El Nino event that is likely to persist and possibly intensify in the coming months.
El Nino is generally associated with weakened monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent and can result in reduced rainfall during the latter part of the southwest monsoon season.