In olden days, soon after a movie release, the “talk” would be whether it’s meant for the “mass” (working sections) or the “class” (middle and upper classes). Hit movies of either form used to celebrate “100 days”—the only difference between the two being the composition of the audience.
Much of what is happening in the Battle for Ballot-2014 in Andhra Pradesh is akin to this—on the one hand, there is an essentially welfare agenda being sold by Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress and on the other, is a development story the Telugu Desam campaign is heavily relying on with its chief N Chandrababu Naidu scripting the same with BJP PM candidate Narendra Modi.
Post-division, thanks to its own leaders, the Congress has been pushed so deep into the pit that it is finding it difficult to get out of it. As you travel across the three districts comprising North Coastal Andhra—Srikakulam, Vizianagaram and Visakhapatnam—considered as backward as the newly-carved out Telangana, you still find a section of the traditional Congress voters remaining faithful. It is just that the leaders have abandoned the ship while the brave are still putting up a fight. With the Congress by and large not in contention, the fight has essentially turned two-way—both YSR Congress and TDP positioning their poles in every colony, every village and every town to go for the kill on May 7. If the YSR Congress was seen as having an easy ride before the division, a series of subsequent events—fall of the Congress, concerns about the future of the residuary state and realignment of political forces at the local level—have brought the Telugu Desam back into the reckoning.
Unlike Rayalaseema or the south of Coastal Andhra Pradesh where voters generally align with a political party based on caste lines, north coastal belt comprising five Lok Sabha seats and 34 Assembly constituencies, is heavily dominated by backward classes and SCs, and is known for its “undecided voters”.
Whether you travel on the quadrilateral road that takes you from Visakhapatnam to Srikakulam or hit the connecting roads that take you to the hinterland, the refrain is the same. “We are listening to what everyone is saying. But, we are yet to make up our mind. I don’t know what my wife will do when she enters the booth? How can I tell you who is going to win?” says Govinda, an auto-driver at Bitwada village. What is unmistakable is that there is no wave either for the YSRC or the TDP. Leaders are clueless as voters keep the cards close to their chest. “I have to admit there is no one-way swing. It is a tough fight but we feel it will be positive for us,” confesses a YSRC candidate as he takes a break for lunch. Both YSRC and TDP made mistakes in the selection of candidates and the alliance the TDP chose to have with the BJP is working both ways—it is adding some votes, but is also hurting the party in constituencies which it gave up for its partner.
Vasudeva Rao, a mechanic with a private factory in S Kota constituency, sums up the situation aptly: “YSRC has seen some loss post-division for a variety of reasons including the feeling that Jagan did not do enough to stop bifurcation. Voters are well and truly confused. Should they go for a novice like Jagan or put faith in someone (Chandrababu Naidu) far more experienced?”
The line-up, though, is clear: a vast majority of the poor, who do not seem to have much stake in the development model, are with the YSRC. The middle class, a section of farmers and upper classes, who look for development and the consequent creation of employment and other opportunities, appear to be backing TDP.
Rahul Gandhi and his party may be out of the reckoning in this poll but it is that newly-created section of society that he talks about—above the poverty line but below the middle class, still dependent on welfare and at the same time, nursing higher aspirations—that could tilt the balance.
But, at the end of the day, none of the above will matter more than liquor and money. “Effective distribution of liquor and cash is the key to winning the election,” emphasises Mohan Rao of Singannapalem village.