PATNA:When Lalu Prasad Yadav gave a clarion call for Mandal Raj–II during the ‘Swabhiman Rally’ here on August 30, nobody thought it would get derailed so soon by none other than his own relative and chief of the new grand alliance, Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Though a ‘humiliating’ treatment meted out to the Samajwadi Party (SP)—which was not allotted a single seat in the upcoming Assembly elections—was the immediate provocation to part ways, there are other reasons too. As part of a damage control exercise, five seats—three of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and two from Lalu’s Rashtriya Janata Dal’s (RJD) quota of 100 seats—were later allotted to SP. The NCP had already left the alliance as it was not satisfied with three seats allotted to it.
Lalu seemed to have a premonition that Mulayam might chart his own course, as he said during Swabhiman Rally: “There is a bid to split the Yadavs, but can they be divided? When the buffaloes have failed to push them (Yadavs) off their backs, how can Modi do so?”
It is another matter that SP is not a political force to reckon with in Bihar. It didn’t have a single MLA and got only 0.92 per cent votes in last the Assembly elections in 2010. The party had fielded 146 candidates.
But in a bipolar election with a neck and neck fight in most of the constituencies, SP’s decision to pull out may have its impact on the poll prospects of the mega alliance. Besides, it is likely to have a psychological impact on the political grouping and its followers. SP’s exit has created a storm in the alliance as the party has the potential to be a spoiler. SP can hurt JD(U) and RJD by creating an alternative platform for non-BJP candidates. SP, along with NCP and Jan Adhikar Manch led by Pappu Yadav, can present themselves as a third front. While this may not create any electoral miracle, it can prove a to be a “vote katwa” (vote cutting) party in most of the constituencies.
If some of SP candidates manage to get even a few hundred votes, they may spoil the prospect of the grand alliance. Since both RJD and JD(U) are contesting 100 seats each this time—climbing down from the last Assembly election seat count of 168 and 141 respectively—it would force a large number of ticket seekers to take shelter elsewhere.
In a much compromised position, JD(U) may not leave any winning seat for RJD candidates. In the previous Assembly elections in 80 constituencies, JD(U) candidates defeated RJD candidates. Recently, RJD had consolidated its vote share in many constituencies, as claimed by Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, party vice-president and former Union minister.
Shivanand Tiwary, a former MP and a close associate of Lalu and Nitish, said, “In the last Lok Sabha elections, our party was number two in 145 assembly constituencies. In a new seat sharing arrangement, many sincere party workers will join hands with SP, particularly those candidates who have a strong electoral base.”
The damage could be more to RJD as in many constituencies, core voters of the party will have another option in SP. Even a minor shift in votes will hurt RJD. In the last Assembly elections, it won only 22 seats despite getting 18.84 per cent votes whereas JD(U) won 115 seats with 22.58 per cent votes.
Asked about Mulayam’s exit Nitish said, “We will not allow SP to walk out of the alliance. Their concern will be addressed.” Nitish knows that it was Mulayam who persuaded a sulking Lalu to announce his candidature as the alliance’s chief ministerial candidate. With Mulayam gone, Nitish is worried about who will keep Lalu satisfied.
The third major partner of the alliance, the Congress—which has a history of a not too cosy relationship with SP—also termed Mulayam’s exit unfortunate and even indicated that it was willing to share some of its seats with SP. But Mulayam is apprehensive of allying with Congress in Bihar as the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections are not far away. This is the likely reason why he avoided sharing the dais with Sonia Gandhi during the Swabhiman Rally.
Though Lalu’s youngest daughter Raj Lakshmi married Mulayam’s grand-nephew in February 2014, this Yadav political titan’s family association may not save the political marriage from being rocked.