THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Local body polls often signal the shifting political trends in Kerala. On Saturday, political Kerala witnessed one of the most striking comebacks of recent times, with the Congress-led UDF recording a decisive victory in the local body elections, and the ruling LDF suffered a surprise and potentially debilitating setback.
Compounding the CPM's woes, the BJP-led NDA quite emphatically snatched the prestigious Thiruvananthapuram city corporation from its hands, in a victory that has the potential to fuel BJP's growth in Kerala in the coming years.
Riding on a strong anti-incumbency wave, the UDF registered a resounding victory, winning four out of six municipal corporations, seven district panchayats, 54 municipalities, 79 block panchayats and around 505 grama panchayats. The ruling Left suffered a humiliating setback, as it lost four sitting municipal corporations, four district panchayats, more than 100 grama panchayats, half of the block panchayats and around 20 municipalities.It's after 15 years that the UDF registered an authentic victory in local body elections in the state.
However, the biggest takeaway of the 2025 local body elections is the win that the BJP scripted in Thiruvananthapuram corporation. Spurred by the party national leadership's long-term desire to win the civic body in the state capital, the NDA secured 50 out of 100 wards, a substantial rise from the 34 seats it held in the previous council.
The BJP win invited applause from the party top brass, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi who called it a watershed moment in Kerala politics. "The people are certain that development aspirations of the state can only be addressed by our party," Modi posted on 'X'.
The election outcome, widely perceived as a precursor to the assembly elections just a few months away, have come as a major confidence booster for the UDF, while it has obviously set the alarm bells ringing for the LDF. None would have thought that a battered and bruised UDF, reeling under the recent Rahul Mamkoottathil fiasco, would emerge a winner. On the other hand, the NDA which was struggling to find a foothold in state politics, has managed to proved itself a formidable opponent to both fronts.
In an election that was seen as a referendum on the decade-long CPM-led rule under Pinarayi Vijayan, the LDF was banking mainly on the recent increase in social welfare pensions to win the people's mandate, while its cyber team focussed on the Mamkoottathil issue.
The voters however were in no mood to take the bait, and chose to hand the Left a resounding defeat, that's sure to trigger an intense introspection.
On the other hand, the UDF and the NDA based their campaign on the Sabarimala gold theft, which seems to have made an impact on the faithful as well as the discerning public.For a change, this time around the UDF made early poll predictions. The handling of Rahul Mamkoottathil fiasco earned special credit for Leader of Opposition VD Satheesan. The moves to woo the minority communities too reaped rich dividends.
Notably the rural population - primarily the district, block and grama panchayats - which traditionally stand by the Left, abandoned the front, leaving it facing a total washout in numerous pockets. A quick analysis shows that the conventional minority vote base, which usually favours the UDF, continued with the Opposition front. The Left campaign, targetting the UDF for its Jamaat-e-Islami affinity, also seems to have accelerated this minority polariation against the Left.
Attempts by the Left to win the majority's votes, through apparent appeasements via getting into the good books of SNDP supreme Vellappally Natesan and NSS secretary Sukumaran Nair, have clearly backfired. The Sabarimala factor coupled with the anti-government sentiment ensured that a substantial chunk of the majority votes went to the UDF.
The BJP despite winning the capital city corporation, could not make substantial gains in other parts of the state. Of its two sitting municipalities, the BJP could retain only one - Palakkad - while it lost Pandalam and instead won Thripunithura.
With only a few months remaining for the assembly polls, the writing on the wall is clear for the ruling front. Despite all its inherent weaknesses, the Congress front is on a comeback path. For the CPM alliance, it's time to mend its ways and regain its people's connect. As far as the BJP is concerned, it has clearly carved out its space in Kerala's bipolar politics.