DUBAI: As the United States assembles its greatest military firepower in decades in the Middle East, Iranians are warily awaiting the next round of talks with the U.S. in Geneva this week — negotiations that many see as a last chance for their ruling theocracy to strike a deal with President Donald Trump.
Some say the situation feels hopeless. Battered by decades of sanctions, heightened by Trump's 2018 decision to withdraw from Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers, Iranians also just suffered through the bloodiest crackdown on dissent in the country's modern history as security forces in January killed thousands of people and detained tens of thousands more.
Now, as they await the outcome of the Geneva talks on Thursday, many fear the outbreak of a war that could surpass Iran's bloody 1980s conflict with Iraq.
But while that conflict sparked a patriotic response from Iranian volunteers, the prospects of a war with the U.S. have riven a population that still includes hard-line supporters of the country's theocracy as well as those who feel Iran is splitting at the seams.
“Every morning when I get up, my brain is full of chaos,” said Sepideh Bafarani, a 29-year-old woman who works in a woman's clothing store. “It's a possible war ... and an ongoing bad economic situation.”
Rasool Razzaghi, a 54-year-old resident in Tehran, the Iranian capital, summed up the approaching talks with a similar concern.
“I predict that if both sides really mean what they are saying, a war will start," he said.
Trump's ‘armada’ is getting closer
For weeks, Trump has talked about an “armada” that is now largely in place off the coast of Iran, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. He has also sent the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, from the Caribbean toward the Mideast.
Overall, there are at least 16 U.S. Navy ships assembled, according to an analysis by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
That’s comparable to Operation Desert Fox in 1998, when American and British forces bombed Iraq for four days over Saddam Hussein ’s refusal to comply with U.N. Security Council resolutions about weapons inspections. Between the carriers and aircraft on the ground in Jordan, there are also stealth F-35 fighters and other warplanes capable of launching a major attack on Iran.
Iranians have been watching the buildup with growing concern, either by surreptitiously getting around internet restrictions or watching satellite news channels. Iranian state television has meanwhile kept showing the country's military running drills and its leaders threatening massive retaliation against any American assault.
Iranian state TV on Tuesday said the country's Revolutionary Guard held a drill that included launching missiles, flying drones and firing guns at targets along its coast, without elaborating on the exact time or place of the exercise.
“I don’t know. I’m not so optimistic," a passer-by told The Associated Press on Tuesday in Tehran, declining to give his name for fear of reprisals. "It’s not an equal situation. One side has entered the talks with a lot of power, it has lot of equipment. On the other hand, Iran is in a weak position. They want total surrender, but I think that’s not viable.”
Steve Witkoff, the billionaire friend of Trump now serving as his special Mideast envoy, has said the president didn’t understand why Iran “hadn’t capitulated” given the forces arrayed against it in the region and beyond in Europe. Iranian Foreign Minister spokesman Esmail Baghaei dismissed Witkoff’s comments on Monday, saying “the word ‘capitulation’ does not exist in the Iranians’ dictionary.”
Even looking beyond the public statements, it remains unclear just what Iran could offer Trump. Tehran has insisted it wants to continue enriching uranium, something Trump has repeatedly said must stop. It also has refused to discuss its ballistic missile arsenal or its support of regional proxy forces, another Trump demand.
‘Everybody is worried’
It remains difficult to speak to people in Iran as the internet and telephone lines remain disrupted following last month's nationwide protests. On the streets of Tehran, many people remain suspicious of talking to journalists, assuming reporters all work for the government. Iran's theocracy controls all radio and TV stations in the country.
Those who did talk with the AP kept mentioning the 1980s war with Iraq, a cataclysmic event in the mind of those old enough to remember it.
“I remember many bad situations but even during Iran-Iraq war in 1980s it was not like this," said Hassan Mirzaei, a 68-year-old taxi driver. “I am in shock without any hope — especially when there is word about war.”
He added: “I have two orphaned grandchildren, and I need to work to feed.”
“Everybody is worried because (of) the consequences of war with a country like America," said the Tehran passer-by. “We once fought Iraq for eight years, but it was a country at the same level with us. Going to war with America, Israel and NATO will have very horrible and unpredictable consequences. "
“What can we do,” he added. "We can’t leave your country. We have no choice but to adapt.”
However, not everyone is opposed to Iran's government. Ami Mianji, a 33-year-old who runs an auto repair shop, described Iranians as a brave people who are not afraid of war.
“I do not care about threats by Trump and others, eventually Iranians will push back any warmonger,” Mianji said.
But for many young people, the crackdown on the demonstrations have broken whatever trust they had for the country's government.
“I have no hope,” said one student who spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity also fearing reprisals. “Iran is refusing to back down from its positions for sure, because if it does, it would have officially given up its 40-year-old ideology.”
“I have no hope,” he added. "The leaders of both countries speak often and none of them is willing to concede to reach a deal. So the likelihood for war is high.”