Keralam is ageing faster than most of India. Fewer births, longer life expectancy and the migration of young people are changing the balance between the working-age population and older adults. The shift is already affecting families, the workforce, healthcare and public spending. With people aged 60 and above expected to account for more than a fifth of the population by 2031, the challenge is no longer whether the Southern state will age, but how it will manage the consequences. Here we explain why the change is happening, what it means for the state and the steps needed to prepare for the years ahead.
How serious is the demographic shift?
People aged 60 and above accounted for 16.5% of Keralam’s population in 2021. The proportion is projected to reach 20.9% by 2031 and about 23% by 2036. Meanwhile, the share of children aged 0-14 fell from 43% in 1961 to 23.4% in 2011 and 20.4% in 2021. It is projected to decline further to 18.4% by 2031.
The change has been evident for years. The Economic Review 2014, tabled in the Assembly in 2015, warned that Keralam was moving towards zero or negative population growth. Between 2001 and 2011, the state’s population grew by just 4.9%, against 17.6% nationally, while its child population fell by 8.44%.
In the 2023-24 Budget, then-finance minister K N Balagopal described demographic transition as one of Keralam’s “second-generation developmental issues”.
Why are fewer children being born?
Families that once had four, five or more children increasingly have one or two. The change is linked to improvements in education, healthcare, women’s status and living standards, as well as urbanisation.
Divya Balan, Assistant Professor and Area Chair of international studies at FLAME University, in Pune, says that while families had 10 or more children in the 1960s, family sizes have fallen sharply since the 1980s.
Fewer births were long seen as a sign of development. They helped Keralam move ahead of much of India in reducing fertility. However, the same trend now means fewer young people will enter the workforce.
The number of children born in the state averaged 6.5 lakh in the 1980s and 5.3 lakh in the 1990s. It fell to 4.6 lakh in 2021 and is expected to decline to 3.6 lakh by 2031.
How does longer life expectancy contribute to ageing?
Better healthcare, improved treatment, greater awareness, and lower mortality mean more people live into old age and survive longer. Keralam has one of India’s highest life expectancies.
“The life expectancy of people has increased with the advancements in the healthcare sector, better treatment facilities, and awareness,” says Babu Joseph, president of the Senior Living Association of Kerala (SLAK).
Longer lives are a measure of development, but they also mean that pensions, healthcare and other forms of support may be needed for more years after retirement.
How is migration adding to the problem?
Keralam’s migration pattern has changed. Earlier, many workers moved to Gulf countries and returned after a period of employment or retirement. Increasingly, young people in their early twenties are moving to Canada, the UK, Germany, the US and Australia for education and work.
Babu Joseph says the shift has been pronounced over the past five to ten years. Divya Balan points out that many of these young people may settle abroad rather than return to Keralam.
As a result, the state has fewer young people available locally even as its elderly population grows.
Which districts have the highest share of older people?
The burden is not evenly distributed. Census 2011 figures reproduced in the Economic Review show that Pathanamthitta had the highest proportion of elderly residents, at 17.9%, followed by Kottayam at 15.9% and Alappuzha at 15.2%. Thrissur and Ernakulam recorded 13.8% each.
The elderly population is expected to keep growing. State Health projections put the number of people aged 60 and above at around 67.68 lakh in 2026 and 84.18 lakh by 2036.
Will Keralam have enough people to support its elderly population?
The concern is not just the number of older adults, but the smaller number of young people entering the workforce. Both are interlinked. Children aged 0-14 form the future working-age population. Fewer births today mean fewer potential workers 15 to 20 years later.
The 2023 Economic Review warned that this would reduce additions to the working-age population while increasing the government’s social security obligations.
The 2023 Budget illustrated the pressure through the potential support ratio: the number of people aged 15-64 for every person aged 65 or above. It projected a fall from 4.5 to 3.4, then to 2.3. A lower ratio means fewer working-age people are available to support each older person, increasing the financial and caregiving responsibilities of families, communities and government.
Migration adds to the pressure because many educated young people work outside the state or abroad.
How will ageing affect families?
Smaller families mean fewer children to share responsibility for ageing parents. An only son or daughter may have to care for both parents and parents-in-law while holding a job and managing a household.
“There is a huge decline in the young population,” says Babu Joseph. “Now the situation in Keralam is such that a child—son or daughter—has to take care of the parents and parents-in-law.”
This is creating greater demand for home-based care, professional caregivers, assisted living and senior-living communities. It also raises practical questions about who will provide care, who will pay for it and whether enough trained workers will be available.
What senior-living facilities are emerging in Keralam?
Several projects are already operational or under construction, according to SLAK. Bless Homes near Aluva has around 150 residents. Palmcare Senior Living at Kothamangalam is developing about 400 apartments on six acres, with capacity for more than 500 people, at an investment of around ₹350 crore.
The Travancore Foundation, a non-profit senior-living and elder-care organisation founded by Jiji Philip in 2009, has 273 residents across three locations in Kottayam, Kolenchery and Ernakulam. Two more facilities are under construction. Real estate companies such as Asset Homes and Prestige Group have also entered the segment.
Why is there concern about commercial players entering senior care?
Babu Joseph, chairman and managing director of Palmcare Senior Living, argues that senior living is primarily a service, not simply a property business. He says care must not be compromised for commercial returns.
Jiji Philip says the stigma attached to senior-living facilities changed during the COVID period. Families had often felt guilty about placing parents in care homes, but the pandemic exposed the difficulties of caring for older adults living alone and increased acceptance of organised elder care.
The growing sector will need clear standards for healthcare, staffing, food, safety, emergency response and financial transparency.
Can the silver economy create jobs and investment?
Yes. The opportunity extends well beyond retirement apartments to home healthcare, assisted living, rehabilitation, physiotherapy, nursing, palliative care, geriatric medicine, mobility products, technology, insurance, financial services, recreation and travel.
A report by real estate consultancy JLL and the Association of Senior Living India put India’s organised senior-living market at about 25,050 units as of June 2026. The market has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 14.2% since 2024, while organised penetration remains around 1.5%. The report estimates a potential market opportunity of about $10.1 billion.
Keralam could attract a significant share of this investment and create employment. But growth will need regulation to ensure that the needs of older residents take precedence over property sales and profits.
Can state incentives families to have more children?
Reversing the trend will be difficult. Divya Balan argues that governments have limited power to reverse a demographic transition shaped by wider social changes. Later marriages, decisions not to marry and the choice to have one child or none all affect birth rates. Migration also reduces the number of young people living in Keralam.
She suggests stronger support for co-parenting, including longer maternity leave and two or three months of paternity leave, to make raising children easier.
What can family-support policies achieve?
Divya points to Andhra Pradesh’s proposed incentives for larger families, including financial support for a third and fourth child. She cautions that such measures may have limited impact in Kerala, where family decisions depend less on government assistance.
Policy could instead help couples who want children but face medical or financial barriers, including the cost of fertility treatment. The broader point is that financial incentives alone are unlikely to reverse the demographic shift.
What government support is already available to senior citizens?
Keralam has introduced programmes including geriatric clinics, palliative care, dementia care centres, Vayomithram, Aswasakiranam, Vayo Madhuram and Vayo Raksha. Local governments also run day-care facilities such as Swayamprabha Homes.
The task now is to ensure these services meet the needs of a growing elderly population, alongside pensions, healthcare, and other forms of social security.
What is the new senior-citizen welfare department expected to do?
The UDF government has established a dedicated senior-citizen welfare department. Its approach extends beyond welfare pensions to elderly-friendly public services, community care, rapid-response mechanisms and better access to healthcare.
The government has also begun developing an Elder-Friendly Office Certification system to assess whether public offices are accessible and usable for senior citizens.
How will Keralam address the shortage of caregivers?
In September, Chief Minister V D Satheesan said the government planned to introduce caregiving certificate courses starting next academic year. Medical colleges, nursing colleges and suitably equipped private hospitals could offer a six-month course followed by a one-year internship.
The government also plans to strengthen palliative care and train existing caregivers. These measures aim to build a workforce capable of caring for the state’s growing elderly population.
What should Keralam prepare for in the long term?
The state will need age-friendly healthcare, reliable pensions and social security, home-based care, trained professional caregivers, senior-friendly public infrastructure and effective regulation of assisted-living facilities.
It must also recognise that ageing does not necessarily mean inactivity. Many people remain economically productive, independent and socially active well into their sixties and seventies.