NEW DELHI: A majority of NDA leaders, preferring to remain anonymous, citing political reasons, appeared more confident about electing an experienced, neutral and seasoned individual as the next Vice-President.
They expressed that it would be someone representing a significant portion of the pichhara (backward) classes.
Speaking to TNIE, in the premises of Parliament, several NDA MPs from both the Upper and Lower Houses, requesting anonymity, hinted at a strong possibility of candidate being from backward or extremely backward community.
“Jo bhi hoga aisa lagata hai picchare varg se hoga” (Whosoever it will be, as it appears now, he will be from the backwards classes). What exactly prompted Dhankhar to resign, however, remains one of the biggest political mysteries.
Yet, speculation continues to swirl across the corridors of Parliament that either Bihar or West Bengal may be represented in the second-highest constitutional office -- potentially ushering in another political surprise.
“Ram Nath Thakur—Minister of State in the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare—is one of the prominent names doing the rounds as the most likely candidate,” a senior BJP source said.
He further said, "Thakur is the son of the Bharat Ratna awardee and former (late) Bihar CM Karpoori Thakur and belongs to the Nai (barber) community, an ati-pichhara caste”. Nadda, BJP's current president's name is also doing the rounds. When questioned on how this could be feasible, noting that he occupies concurrent charge of the Health Ministry, a senior BJP source clarified that a cabinet reshuffle is likely after the Monsoon Session.
He may resign from the post before being declared the Vice-Presidential candidate, and his ministry could be temporarily handed over to another cabinet minister as an additional charge.
Dhankhar’s resignation remains enigmatic, with reasons known only to him till date. But, there are, however, a few circulating theories -- including speculation of friction between him and the government on certain issues.
This development has also brought Bihar CM Nitish Kumar back into political discussions.
“His (Nitish Kumar's) name has not come up only this time; it has been speculated for the last few years. But this does not seem to be happening,” said a senior JDU member, refusing to accept that this speculation carries a much possibility.
Among the other names surfacing in the power corridors are senior BJP leader and former Rajasthan CM Vasundhara Raje, present Bihar Governor Md. Arif Khan, former Union Minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, and Harivansh, currently Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha, who is managing the House in the wake of Dhankhar’s resignation.
“Despite all these names, you know our government springs a surprise,” one senior BJP source cryptically remarked, hinting that a person from West Bengal may still be in consideration.
The ruling NDA enjoys a comfortable electoral advantage, making it well-positioned to elect a consensus candidate of its own for the Vice-Presidency, a role that also entails chairing the Upper House of Parliament—Rajya Sabha.
According to established parliamentary procedure, the Vice-President is elected by members of both the Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha, including nominated members.
The Rajya Sabha currently has 245 seats with five vacancies (four from Jammu and Kashmir and one from Punjab, the latter vacated by Sanjeev Arora who won a by-election to the state assembly).
Meanwhile, the Lok Sabha has one vacancy from Basirhat in West Bengal, leaving its strength at 542. This brings the combined effective strength of both Houses to 786. A Vice-Presidential candidate would need 394 votes to win, assuming full turnout. The NDA presently commands the support of 293 MPs in the Lok Sabha and 129 in the Rajya Sabha, giving it a total of 422—enough for a comfortable victory.
While Clause 2 of Article 68 of the Constitution mandates that an election to fill the Vice-President’s vacancy—be it due to death, resignation, removal, or otherwise—must be held “as soon as possible,” the Modi government appears in no rush.
It seemingly prefers to pursue a consensus-based approach over the nominee. As per Article 66(1) of the Constitution, the election is to be held through the system of proportional representation by means of the single transferable vote, and the ballot is to remain secret.
A clearer picture regarding the Vice-Presidential candidate is expected to emerge after 26 July, once Prime Minister Narendra Modi returns from his overseas visit.