Dr Ashwini Ranade, Senior Scientist at the Centre for Cryosphere and Climate Change Studies, National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, cautions in an interview with TNIE that the Himalayas are now also prone to occurrences of Compound Extremes. Region-specific early warning systems and strong adaptation and mitigation policies are the only answer, she asserts. Excerpts:
Do the extreme weather events across the hill states constitute a climate emergency?
I would not call it a climate emergency, but yes, climate change is the main driver. Clear changes in rainfall patterns and intensities are evident. However, the real emergency is to strengthen adaptation and mitigation policies. Since we cannot control the occurrences of extremes, we need these policies to reduce our vulnerability.
Have past events spurred climate change?
Extreme events themselves do not accelerate climate change, but they are strong indicators of the climate change we are currently experiencing. Not only are natural factors involved, but anthropogenic factors are also playing a major role.
For example, recent instances of urban flooding in Delhi, Bengaluru, and Chennai show the issue is not limited to the Himalayas. The major reason for urban flooding is also the lack of proper drainage systems, secondary emergency drainage channels, and permissible land use.
Is the tragedy unfolding in the hill states man-made? Are growing encroachments weakening river embankments in Punjab?
Climate change is intensifying extreme events, but the disastrous situation is worsening due to human errors such as encroachments and unplanned development in floodplain zones. The public also needs to be educated; if people continue to live in unsafe zones without relocation, they will remain highly vulnerable. We need to understand that the Himalayas are a very fragile system. Not all slopes in the Himalayas are suitable for infrastructure, and in unstable areas, development should be completely restricted.
In Punjab, the flood situation also occurs because of the release of excess water from upstream dams. To control this water, various embankments are constructed. However, many of them are breached, and numerous dry channels are encroached upon.
List the specific reasons for the climate calamities.
In the Himalayan region, the primary reason for climate change is global warming. A rise of about one degree in temperature leads to nearly a 7 percent increase in atmospheric moisture, and this increased moisture results in heavier rainfall. Another reason is the alteration in monsoon patterns due to global climate change. Now, the Himalayas are also prone to occurrences of Compound Extremes.
In Punjab, there are three major reasons. First, persistent rainfall often occurs since the second week of August. Second, heavy rainfall in Himachal Pradesh increases inflows in the Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi rivers, which flow downstream into Punjab. Third, encroachments on dry channels and the weakening and breaching of embankments worsen flooding by obstructing natural drainage.
Do we need a national plan for climate change?
The government is already developing a national adaptation plan for climate change, as well as plans for various sectors, including agriculture, water, health, and energy. Our institute is also contributing to these efforts.
Is it a collective failure on the part of scientists, weather and agriculture experts, state governments, and the Centre?
I would not call it a collective failure, because everyone is working in their own domain—scientists are identifying causes and solutions, and governments are investing significant resources in planning and policies. The real issue is the lack of coordination among these different agencies.
What immediate and long-term measures would you suggest?
We need to develop early warning systems, define the roles of the public and private sectors, build resilient water supply systems and energy infrastructure and convince people to relocate from unsafe zones.