MUMBAI: Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) has lost the BMC elections in a high-voltage contest against the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance. However, despite a significant drop in its previous year’s tally, Thackeray remains very much in Mumbai’s political landscape.
From the moment the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections were announced, it was clear that the BJP had the upper hand. With the chief minister in the state, the prime minister at the Centre, and vast resources at its disposal, the party was better placed than the Thackeray brothers, Uddhav and Raj. The only question that remained was whether the cousin brothers could pull back, hold the fort, and limit the damage as the attack came from all sides.
Depite the results not going Uddhav's way, Shiv Sena (UBT) performed well in Marathi-dominated pockets, defeating those from Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena in several key areas. Among those who lost were Shiv Sena Lok Sabha MP Ravindra Waikar’s daughter and the son of Sena leader Sada Sarvankar. Both were defeated in what were considered their strongholds by Thackeray’s candidates.
This shows that the Marathi manoos, who form a large and decisive voting bloc, chose Uddhav over Shinde in a close contest. However, Uddhav failed to add new numbers to his kitty, while the BJP cornered a majority of the non-Marathi votes in a polarised Marathi versus non-Marathi campaign.
Moreover, Uddhav ’s decision to align with his brother Raj Thackeray, hoping to consolidate Marathi votes, proved counter-productive due to his earlier tirades against North Indians and Muslims.
Muslim voters, who had voted for Sena (UBT) in the last Lok Sabha elections, helped the party win three of the six seats, while losing one by just 34 votes. Its alliance partner, the Congress, won one seat, leaving the BJP with only one seat, won by Piyush Goyal, in the Mumbai North Lok Sabha constituency.
Uddhav believed that Raj, more than his Maha Vikas Aghadi ally Congress, would help consolidate votes against the BJP. The Sena (UBT) chief expected Raj’s oratory skills to bring together around 40 per cent of Marathi votes and the Muslim vote, estimated at 18 to 20 per cent, as a strong counter-force. However, he was wrong.
Raj not only alienated North Indian, Gujarati, Marwari, and South Indian voters but also made Muslim voters think twice. His earlier tirades, including calls to remove loudspeakers from mosques, weakened support for Uddhav’s party.
Minority votes proved decisive but were split among several parties, including the Congress, MIM, Samajwadi Party, NCP, and NCP (SP). Only a small fraction remained with Uddhav Thackeray, and this division changed the game for him.
On the other hand, the BJP strategically consolidated non-Marathi votes in large numbers. With the help of deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde, it also made significant inroads into the Marathi vote base.
At the same time, chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, projecting himself as a development-orientated leader and a champion of Hindutva, also attracted a large section of Marathi voters. As a result, the gap between the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance and the Thackeray brothers widened.
The Thackeray brothers had time to bridge the gap but started too late, by which point the BJP was already marching towards a majority. If they knew they would contest together, there was little reason to delay strengthening their local cadre and reaching out to voters early.
Instead, they visited shakhas only a few days before polling and addressed just one mega rally. While it did have some impact, it was not enough.
Uddhav Thackeray put his voters through a roller-coaster ride. In the Lok Sabha elections, he aligned with the Congress and the NCP, distancing himself from Hindutva politics and signalling a commitment to secularism. This strategy paid off, delivering strong results for him and his allies.
The same alliance was carried into the state polls but failed to produce the desired outcome. A confused Thackeray then switched course and relied entirely on his brother. In the process, he lost nearly 20 per cent of the minority vote bank, a shift that altered the BMC result at the last moment.