The western Himalayas— a region naturally vulnerable to rain-induced disasters—are facing the impact of climate change at an unprecedented scale. To the common man, these are natural disasters; to the scientific community, it is a challenge to determine how the losses may be reduced.
Why are torrential rain and extreme climatic events increasing in the region? The reasons are well understood—human activity-induced imbalance in greenhouse gases is the leading cause. Temperature in Himalayan regions at an altitude of above 4,000 metres has been increasing at about 0.5°C a decade. Low-pressure zones are forming frequently, into which waves of not only southwest monsoon clouds are rushing, but those borne from the Bay of Bengal (southeast) and westerly winds too, making it a triple junction susceptible to high-intensity rainfalls.
Recent research from the Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeosciences and Mizoram University is alarming and defines the challenge to save the Himalayas. Using rings on tree crosssections as a proxy, BSIP researchers found that the trend of monsoon rainfall has been decreasing over the past 500 years, while the incidence of extreme events is increasing. These results are alarming for the entire Himalayas in general, and the Uttarakhand Himalayas in particular.
Climate change is the most significant threat to the region’s snow cover, too. Based on remote sensing techniques and satellite data for 1991-2021, Surajit Banerjee of Mizoram University and a research team found that in the central Himalayas, the trend of drastic decline emerges in both thick and thin snow cover phases of the year. Thick snow cover fluctuated with a period of decline up to 2006, followed by a slight recovery and subsequent reduction in 2021. Conversely, thin snow cover shows a gradual increase up to 2006, followed by a rapid decline in 2021, highlighting the region’s high susceptibility to warming.
The fragility of the Himalayan terrain is attributed to a combination of climate and seismicity. As a consequence, its ecosystem is susceptible even with relatively slight external perturbations such as road widening and tunnel construction work. Human intervention is the main factor that has accelerated the magnitude of disasters in the region.
Forest fires are common in Uttarakhand and most of them are anthropogenic. The main reasons include burning fallen pine leaves to spur the growth of grass and an ignorant local belief that burning wood would initiate rain. A recent study by IIT Kanpur and HNB Garhwal University has cautioned that black carbon particles generated by forest fires are condensing cloud nuclei, thereby enhancing the incidence of cloudbursts in the region and contributing to the rise in air temperature in glaciated terrain, which in turn increases melting.
Forest fire not only affects the Uttarakhand Himalayas, but also other areas of the western Himalayas. Unfortunately, forest cover in Uttarakhand has also been reduced due to felling, and a large number of trees are still being cut for road widening and other developmental projects. Earlier, there were stringent rules to save trees; but they have been diluted of late.
Here, I would like to cite the example of Kerala. Before the high rainfall followed by large-scale landslides that occurred in Wayanad in 2024, earth scientists had taken note of the region’s sensitive geology and recommended precautions to be taken while considering projects in the region. It would have reduced the magnitude of losses in terms of lives and property. But unfortunately, our policymakers often neglect the recommendations of earth scientists.
Now to the inevitable question: what is the remedy to protect human lives, the Himalayas and the built infrastructure? If we examine the most affected settlements, we would find most of them located in inherently unsafe areas. The government should immediately identify such unsafe sites and work with the people so that they leave and settle in safer areas.
Planting is the only remedial measure to reduce the local temperature to some extent. Species that retain soil moisture and protect the land from erosion should be planted. Forest fires should be declared a punishable offence. Unscientific road widening and construction projects must be stopped in the western Himalayas.
The Himalayas need resilient roads, not wider ones that are causing a large number of landslides. Roads already widened need immediate, intense slope treatment. The central government’s department of science and technology has already generously funded many research projects in higher educational institutions for the study of glaciers. But a significant number of scientists are still working on glaciers receding and calculating the rate of retreat—which is not an urgent requirement now, as it is already known. Our future research should primarily focus on how to reduce the rate of receding and save the ‘third pole’ of water resources.
We surely want to avoid the disasters wreaking havoc in the western Himalayas and are committed to keeping the region and its people safe. To do that, we will have to plan our development projects in a strictly scientific manner. The need of the hour is to involve scientists in crafting developmental projects for the entire Himalayan terrain.
Yaspal Sundriyal | Professor of geology, Doon University; former head of geology department, HNB Garhwal University
(Views are personal)