KOCHI: Though summer has not set in, days have become warmer and the temperature has started soaring across the state.
Experts opine that the maximum temperature may soar around 4 degree Celsius above normal in the coming weeks but summer may not be harsh as the previous year. The rainfall has been sparse over the past three months and certain areas in the state have reported water scarcity.
“Sporadic rains in connection with easterly winds can be expected occasionally in the coming weeks. However, IMD’s outlook for February indicates that the rains will be less than usual. Minimum temperatures will be mostly normal in Kerala except over hills, where it will be slightly below normal,” said India Meteorological Department (IMD) Kerala director Neetha K Gopal.
“The maximum temperature will be mostly normal or slightly above normal in February. However, southern parts of the state may experience below normal maximum temperatures. Forecasts indicate the Pacific Ocean temperatures will be normal till April. Hence, abnormal rise in temperatures like in 2024 may not happen in 2026,” she said.
While forecasting a normal summer, oceanographers have raised concerns that the monsoon may be affected as there are chances of El Nino setting in during the latter half of 2026. “As per reports from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Nina, the cold phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, is prevailing which means sea surface temperature in the Pacific Equatorial sea remains below average.
However, forecasts indicate La Niña is expected to weaken early in 2026, with a strong likelihood of a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during January–March,” said National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) emeritus scientist S Prasannakumar.
“If La Niña influence diminishes, monsoon may be closer to normal. But there is some risk of a weaker monsoon later in the year if El Niño emerges, after the neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean,” he added.
La Niña is a condition that occurs in the tropical region of the Pacific Ocean and characterised by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that occurs during winter. This is the opposite condition of El Niño, which is the warm phase. The cooling associated with La Niña, though occurs in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, shifts global wind patterns, ocean currents, and rainfall belts.
According to private weather forecaster Skymet, climate models are showing early signs of a likely El Niño developing in the year 2026.
Latest forecast data show that an El Niño could begin in the second half of 2026 and pick up strength in the middle of the Indian monsoon.
This may heighten the risk of weather variability suppressing monsoon rainfall over India. El Niño significantly disrupts global weather by shifting rainfall patterns and causing droughts in vulnerable regions like the Indian subcontinent.