On Wednesday, Odisha's first BJP Chief Minister Mohan Majhi will take charge after Naveen Patnaik held the post for more than 24 years on the trot. For the first time ever in his illustrious political career, Naveen will now sit in the Opposition. The socio-political life in Odisha will never be the same again.
The 2024 Assembly election has been a watershed moment in Odisha’s history as Naveen was largely expected to win his sixth straight term in office. Instead, an unanticipated event took place and in an almost paradoxical situation, Naveen lost power but there is ubiquitous sentimental support for him across all parts of the state, if social media tributes to his stint and glorious legacy are anything to go by. In this election, political psychology trumped political economics in my view.
Many experts have already ascribed several reasons behind the shock defeat such as a gross misreading of groundswell of perceptions against Naveen’s most powerful assistant and regent, VK Pandian; the latter’s self-aggrandising state tours and sidelining of the BJD MLAs and ministers in policy decision-making as well as in the election campaigns; many awful flaws in candidate selection especially in the form of inviting BJP and INC turncoats; a jaded, corrupt grassroots bureaucracy that thrived on corruption; widespread resentment due to uneven regional development, years of unresolved problems of migrant worker distress, and finally, that much-touted factor 'anti-incumbency'.
However, Naveen has won five elections despite many of these factors at play. This time, the battle of perceptions and sentiments has favoured the BJP. There are these following factors that mattered.
First, the wrong-timed bad optics of having his aide (Pandian) take the centre stage in electioneering shifted the focus from Naveen to Pandian. Earlier, Pandian used to bask in the unstinted halo of Naveen’s feats. Over time, his larger-than-life dominance in the state’s governance exuded a perception that it was Pandian’s world and the BJD legislators and apparatchiks were just living in it. As countless examples of history tell us, such derived glory does not last long. The BJP’s propaganda of Naveen’s ill health and being remote-controlled by Pandian, and what is now known as the Odia Asmita campaign, all worked in sync to drive a social message that a change of guard was required.
Ironically, the Biju Janata Dal was formed in 1997 to cater to the regional political and economic aspirations. Yet, its legitimacy and ideology of regional pride which Naveen had successfully milked all these years have now been hijacked by the BJP’s campaign as they harped on the proxy rule of the state through a non-Odia bureaucratic cabal led by Pandian and succeeded in convincing the innocuous Odia electorate. Quite haplessly, Naveen Patnaik failed to decipher the mood of the state’s people this time. Otherwise, the seasoned politician that Naveen is, he’d not have been unable to gauge that the tide had begun to turn against the BJD when Pandian had toured the districts gathering people's grievances last year. He himself distanced himself from regular party affairs and was inaccessible to his own party leaders – every meeting was to get prior approval from Pandian.
Second, prior to 2014, many people believed in Naveen’s policy of equidistance from both the national parties. However, ever since Narendra Modi came to power at the Centre in 2014, surprisingly, Naveen has always supported BJP on the passage of all the critical and contentious bills in the Parliament. The lines between the BJD and BJP in the minds of the Odia people got blurred and voters gradually perceived the BJD as the B-team of the BJP or at least both the parties operated in cahoots with each other on public policy. Since there was not much difference among the parties on policies and programs at the Centre, any conflict in the state was being treated as an eyewash. This time, a large section of the voters probably thought to give the BJP a chance because they could not differentiate between the political ideologies.
Third, in the first decade of him in power, Naveen was perceived as ruthless against corruption. He had sacked a number of his ministers on graft charges. Yet, such a 'clean image' got significantly dented as gradually he welcomed and tolerated several corrupt and criminally-accused politicians and ministers in his party. A section of the people thought a Teflon-coated Naveen has become less strict when it comes to political and bureaucratic corruption.
Fourth, the plethora of cradle-to-grave public welfare schemes, lakhs of women’s self-help groups and popular cash transfer programs like KALIA and occasional supports, ensured that the BJD votebanks were safe. However, unequal regional development displayed in disparities in economic growth, poverty reduction and unemployment figures across regions in the state fuelled mass resentment which was successfully tapped by the BJP in its campaign. For the first time in his career, Naveen himself got defeated by a BJP novice in Kantabanji, a western Odisha constituency known for rural distress and migrant worker problems.
Going forward, the coming term will have significant implications for the state and the survival of BJD as a regional party. Naveen is 77 years old and has never sat in the opposition benches. He has to keep his flock together and think of a gradual succession planning. The BJD still has secured more than 40% vote share in the Assembly elections. From 112 seats in 2019 to 51 seats in 2024, it’s been a long arduous journey. Yet, Naveen’s stature is unquestioned and his legacy is considered illustrious. This is evident in the fact that across party lines, he enjoys formidable respect for his massive contributions to the state’s progress since 2000 to date.
Naveen has to play a constructive yet critical opposition leader’s role. The party may be at the receiving end of political machinations of the other parties. Many of his flagship welfare programs may be renamed and revamped soon. The incoming government will face the burden of living up to the expectations of the electorate. The new chief minister, whoever it is, will replace the tallest political leader in modern Odisha’s history. It’s not a small job as the sentiments-driven electorate will inevitably compare the performance of Naveen Patnaik vis-à-vis his successor. One good thing has happened with this election: it has increased political competition among the parties in Odisha, so one expects improved governance on all fronts.
The incoming government should look at improving the state’s performance on inequality reduction, infrastructural investments and rural job creation; and ramp up spending so as to reduce agrarian distress. Sectoral growth declines will take some time to see a correction but the policy intent on improving the economic growth and health and education outcomes must be further encouraged.
(Sitakanta Panda is an assistant professor of economics at Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar. Views are personal.)