US President Donald Trump has said the war with Iran is “very close to being over,” raising cautious hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough even as military tensions, economic pressure, and regional spillovers continue to cloud the outlook.
In an interview with FOX Business, cited by AFP, Trump suggested that fresh negotiations with Tehran could resume within days. He indicated that Pakistan could host a second round of talks following an initial round that ended without a deal, with efforts under way to extend the current two-week ceasefire to create space for diplomacy.
US Vice President JD Vance earlier said Washington had put forward what he described as a “grand bargain”, offering Iran economic revival if it commits to not developing nuclear weapons. The dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme remains central to the conflict, with Tehran continuing to deny that it is pursuing an atomic bomb.
However, even as diplomatic signals strengthen, developments on the ground point to a fragile and uneven de-escalation.
The United States has intensified pressure on Iran by enforcing a naval blockade targeting its ports, part of a broader strategy to curb Tehran’s oil exports. The US military said it turned back at least six ships attempting to leave Iranian ports within the first 24 hours of the blockade’s enforcement. The move is aimed at forcing Iran back to the negotiating table, while allowing humanitarian shipments to pass under strict monitoring.
At the same time, maritime tracking data cited by Reuters indicated that some vessels, including Iran-linked tankers, have continued to transit the Strait of Hormuz despite the blockade. While overall shipping traffic has thinned and insurance risks have surged, the partial movement of vessels underscores the difficulties in fully enforcing the restrictions in one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
Washington has also signalled that it will maintain economic pressure, with the US Treasury Department announcing that it will not renew a temporary sanctions relief measure that had allowed the sale of Iranian oil stranded at sea. The decision reinforces the administration’s “maximum pressure” approach even as it pursues negotiations.
Parallel diplomatic efforts are unfolding across multiple capitals. In Beijing, Xi Jinping met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, with both sides reiterating their intent to coordinate efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East. China and Russia, close strategic partners, have positioned themselves as key stakeholders in managing the crisis.
On another front, Israel and Lebanon have agreed to launch direct negotiations following US-mediated talks in Washington led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The agreement to hold talks at a mutually decided time and venue was seen as a positive step, given the history of hostilities between the two sides.
Yet, the situation remains volatile. Hezbollah claimed it launched rocket attacks on 13 towns in northern Israel shortly after the announcement, highlighting the persistent risk of escalation even as diplomatic channels reopen.
The conflict’s ripple effects are being felt far beyond the Middle East. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that the Iran war is diverting US attention and resources away from Ukraine. He said American negotiators involved in Ukraine-related diplomacy are now “constantly” engaged in talks related to Iran, raising concerns in Kyiv that reduced pressure on Russia could embolden Moscow.
Humanitarian and economic concerns are also mounting. The International Red Cross and Red Crescent said a shipment of medical supplies had entered Iran, its first such delivery since the start of the war.
The economic toll is becoming increasingly evident. The International Monetary Fund has sharply cut its 2026 growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa to 1.1%, down from an earlier projection of 3.9%. The IMF warned that key economies including Iran, Iraq and Qatar could be significantly affected by disruptions to oil and gas exports, though it added that growth could rebound if energy production and transport normalise in the coming months.
Trump has also sparked friction among Western allies. In an interview with an Italian daily, he criticised Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni for her reluctance to support US efforts in the conflict, saying he was “shocked” by her stance despite considering her a political ally.
Even as diplomatic channels, from Washington to Beijing and potentially Islamabad, show tentative signs of reopening, the broader situation remains precarious. Continued military activity, economic coercion, and competing geopolitical priorities underline the uncertainty surrounding any imminent resolution.
(With inputs from Agencies)