Amid a looming ceasefire deadline between the United States and Iran, a Washington-based think tank has cited potential divisions within the Iranian leadership, with tensions persisting ahead of new roud of peace talks in Pakistan.
The analysis by the Institute for the Study of War alleged "a serious intra-regime debate" between Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi, along with other regime officials opposed to negotiations with Washington.
Notably, Ghalibaf led the Iranian delegation in the first round of talks on April 11–12, which concluded without an agreement.
The think tank further noted, "Vahidi is reportedly the only Iranian official with direct access to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and is serving as a conduit for relaying key decisions to other regime officials, according to Israeli media on April 19."
It said Vahidi’s proximity to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei could indicate growing influence within Iran’s decision-making structure, although the claims rely on external media reports.
The think tank also cited unverified Israeli media reports from April 19, saying Iranian officials’ inability to contact Mojtaba is a "significant obstacle to continued US-Iran negotiations."
"Ghalibaf's push for diplomacy and apparent effort to reach a deal may also be a bid to protect his domestic position and maintain credibility," the think tank claimed, adding, "Ghalibaf reportedly fears that both his and Araghchi's positions are at risk if the IRGC consolidates control."
The analysis suggested that any leadership change could have wider implications, stating, "Ghalibaf's removal as the parliament speaker would represent a major defeat for Ghalibaf and his domestic positions and signify a victory for Vahidi."
The think tank opined that these developments were consistent with its broader assessment of shifting power dynamics in Tehran.
"These reports are consistent with CTP-ISW's ongoing assessment that Vahidi and members of his inner circle have likely consolidated control over not only Iran's military response in the conflict but also Iran's negotiation policy."
On the diplomatic front, it said, US and Iranian delegations will reportedly meet in Islamabad, for a second round of talks in the coming days adding that "US and Iranian demands appear to have largely stayed the same."
The anticipated talks come amid continued friction linked to a US naval blockade. The think tank said, "The US Navy continued to enforce its blockade of Iranian ports, directing 27 vessels to change course since the start of the blockade. US forces likely forced two Iranian-linked vessels attempting to violate the Navy's blockade to turn around."
It also referred to a recent maritime incident involving the seizure of the Iranian-flagged, US-sanctioned Touska, saying, "The Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters claimed that the April 19 seizure of the Iranian-flagged, US-sanctioned Touska by the US Navy violated the US-Iran ceasefire."
Notably, the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran was tested once again on Sunday when a US guided-missile destroyer fired on and seized an Iranian cargo ship after it tried to get past the US naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman, further angering the Iranians.
The think tank further pointed to legislative steps in Tehran aimed at asserting greater control over a key global shipping route. "The Iranian Parliament is attempting to formalise Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz by drafting a bill that would ban Israeli-linked vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz," it said.
It added that the proposed bill would also "require vessels from 'hostile countries' to obtain approval from Iran's Supreme National Security Council to transit the strait, and bar states that 'caused damage' to Iran from transiting the strait until they paid reparations to Iran."
With the ceasefire due to expire on Wednesday, the potential Islamabad talks are being seen as a possible diplomatic off-ramp before any further escalation. While the US says a "fair and reasonable" deal has been offered, the think tank said Iran’s reluctance to negotiate under what it described as the "shadow of a blockade" could indicate that the previous round’s stalemate may precede a more serious confrontation.