The US Supreme Court ruled Friday that President Donald Trump had overstepped his authority in tapping emergency economic powers to impose tariffs -- a rare rebuke dealing a sharp blow to his economic agenda.
What are the ramifications of the conservative-majority court's decision, and is it possible for the Trump administration to reinstate duties?
Lower tariffs for now
The average US tariff rate is likely to drop -- at least temporarily -- with some duties imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) ruled illegal.
"Without IEEPA tariffs, consumers will face an overall average effective tariff rate of 9.1 percent, which remains the highest since 1946 excluding 2025," said The Budget Lab at Yale University.
If the IEEPA tariffs remained in effect, this figure would have been 16.9 percent instead.
Even if the Trump administration replaced the struck-down tariffs, it is likely the new levels will be lower than before, analysts say.
"It will force a reset in tariff policy that is likely to lead to lower overall tariff rates and a more orderly imposition of future tariffs," said Navy Federal Credit Union chief economist Heather Long.
Oliver Allen of Pantheon Macroeconomics added: "Tariffs seem to have dented Trump's popularity, and frustration at high prices remains a hot political topic in the US ahead of November's midterms."
Revenue setback
Economists also expect a setback for US government revenues, with some estimating that tariffs linked to IEEPA generated between $130 billion and $140 billion by the end of 2025.
"However, the question about possible refunds remains open for now and will be decided by lower courts in the coming months," said ING analysts Carsten Brzeski and Julian Geib.
The ING analysts added that "refunds won't come automatically," and importers must sue to get their money back.
"This process has already kicked off, with over 1,000 corporate entities now involved in a legal fight," they said.
If the government is on the hook for tariff refunds, this could bring a further fiscal hit.
Losing 'flexibility'
A bigger concern is that the president could lose his "flexibility to use tariffs" for national security reasons and leverage in negotiations, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier warned.
But he maintained that the Trump administration still can continue using tariffs as a revenue stream.
The strike-down of tariffs under emergency powers "would constrain the president's ambitions to impose across-the-board tariffs on a whim," said Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation.
But Asia Society Policy Institute senior vice president Wendy Cutler said US partners are unlikely to walk away from recently-struck tariff deals.
"They know all too well that such a step could end up leaving them in a worse position with the White House," she said.
Plan B
Trump has other avenues to reimpose duties, and analysts expect him to do so.
Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 allows the president to address balance-of-payment issues by imposing temporary import tariffs of up to 15 percent.
The US leader can also slap added duties of up to 50 percent on countries engaging in discriminatory trade practices with Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930.
Other tried-and-tested methods include Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which Trump already tapped repeatedly to impose sector-specific tariffs that have been unaffected by Friday's ruling.
Similarly, Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which Trump used to target Chinese imports during his first presidency, remains at his disposal. Like Section 232, this requires an investigation period.
In January, Trump told the New York Times that he also could repackage his tariffs as licensing fees.