CHENNAI: The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has declared that 2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record, which means it will be the first year of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).
The consequences of such a global average temperature rise is already being felt worldwide, the latest being the devastating flooding in Spain. India is also among the worst affected countries due to climate change.
As per the assessment done by Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), India experienced extreme weather events on 93% of the days in the first nine months of this year. These weather events killed 3,238 people and affected 3.2 million hectares of crop area. As many as 35 out of 36 states and Union Territories experienced extreme weather events.
Amidst such chaos comes the United Nations Climate Conference (COP29), scheduled to be held in Baku, Azerbaijan starting Monday. It is the most consequential of climate summits since the Paris Agreement as the discussions are set to address the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance, a framework that aims to replace the annual commitment of $100 billion made by developed countries in 2009 — a target met only once, in 2022.
This year’s summit is being labeled the “Finance COP” as developing and vulnerable countries are seeking a minimum of $1 trillion to $1.3 trillion in climate finance. This is in line with the $1 trillion that the Independent High Level Expert Group (IHLEG) has said is needed for developing countries (excluding China) to accelerate climate action.
According to the Second Needs Determination Report by the UNFCCC Standing Committee on Finance (SCF), developing nations will need as much as $6.852 trillion cumulatively until 2030 to achieve their stated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
What India needs
India’s stance going into COP29 and G20 Brazil will continue to focus on equitable finance for adaptation and mitigation, with a clear emphasis on accountability from developed nations. India is among the nations that support prioritising public, grant-based and concessional finance for all developing nations. It supports private finance in a supplementary role as a catalyst.
At the G20 Summit in New Delhi in 2023, India, on behalf of Global South nations, asked for $5.9 trillion by 2030 to implement NDCs alone, and a further $4 trillion annually for clean energy technology. This was consolidated further at G20 Brazil, where finance ministers sought deeper reform of the international finance architecture.
Despite ambitious targets, India has only been attracting around $50 billion annually for climate-related investments, split between public funding and private capital, of which 85% is from domestic sources. In contrast, it needs annual investments worth $250 billion till 2047 to prepare India’s energy systems for Net-Zero pathways, according to Niti Aayog. India’s Economic Survey 2023-24 indicates that the country will need approximately $2.5 trillion by 2030 to fulfil its commitments under the Paris Agreement.
Trump bull in climate change shop
However, the huge stumbling block to achieve the ambitious NCQG at COP29 would be the new US administration under the presidency of Donald Trump, who is a known climate change denier. As soon as the US elections results were out, Christiana Figueres, former UN Climate Change executive secretary and chief negotiator of the landmark Paris Agreement of 2015, termed the result a major blow to global climate action. Trump is expected to try to expand more oil and gas drilling and potentially withdraw again from the Paris Agreement. However, experts feel despite greater geopolitical uncertainty, countries at COP29 will prevail upon and achieve a new climate finance goal.
Frances Colon, senior director of International Climate Policy at Center for American Progress said: “Under a second Trump administration, US federal climate leadership will stall, but subnational actors – states, cities, and civil society will still drive meaningful climate action. This makes COP29 all the more critical to reaffirm collective ambition and unlock creative solutions for scaling clean energy and climate finance.”
Li Shuo, Director of China Climate Hub, Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI) said, “in light of this election’s outcome, China will be inevitably in the spotlight as a key mediator, alongside the EU. It will be up to them to truly lead the way forward now that one piece of the puzzle may be missing.”
Harjeet Singh, climate activist and Global Engagement Director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative said as the narrow window to prevent catastrophic climate breakdown closes, “the world cannot afford the US, the largest historical carbon emitter and top fossil fuel producer, to shirk its responsibility.”
L&D, adaptation gap
The Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage (L&D) was a huge milestone in demystifying the concept of L&D and the pathways to achieve the goals. Baku will not only provide an opportunity to review the Warsaw mechanism but also help in developing guidance on the early operationalising of Santiago Network, which aims to catalyse technical assistance on L&D.
“The L&D fund’s first report will also be scrutinized to take stock of what worked and what didn’t... What will be more effective is to create a mechanism to hasten the delivery of support including financial means to countries affected by L&D,” said Dr Nambi Appadurai, Director, Climate Resilience Practice, World Resources Institute (WRI India). He said there are a bunch of other issues that should be prioritised, especially examination of the indicators developed by thematic experts to measure progress on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and insights from the first global stocktake.
Days ahead of COP29, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) published its “Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water”, which highlights the massive shortfall in climate adaptation funds for developing nations.
While international adaptation finance for developing countries rose to $28 billion in 2022, it is still far below what is required, with estimates suggesting that between $187 and $359 billion annually will be required for overcoming the adaptation finance gap.