Tuesday, November 3, 2026, Americans head to the polls for the first nationwide vote since the 2024 presidential race. More than 51 million ballots had already been cast before Election Day, and the outcome will shape how much room Donald Trump has to operate with Congress over the last two years of his term.
Every one of the 435 House seats is up, along with 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships. Democrats lead national polls by roughly nine points, Trump's approval was around 37% in early October, and political advertising is on track to hit a record $11.6 billion.
The big question: do Republicans hold on to Congress, or do Democrats take one or both chambers?
So what exactly are the midterms?
Americans pick a president every four years. Halfway through that term, they get another say, this time on Congress, the body that writes federal law, controls government spending and, in the Senate, confirms judges and senior officials.
Trump isn't on the ballot, so think of it as a report card. Voters can't remove him, but they can decide whether he keeps a friendly Congress or has to deal with one that can say no. History isn't on his side: in 20 of the last 22 midterms, the president's party lost ground.
What's at stake
Republicans run both chambers, but not by much. The Senate is split 53-47. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51, since at 50-50 the Republican vice-president breaks ties.
In the House, where all seats are up because members serve two-year terms, the Republican majority is razor thin. Democrats need a net gain of about three seats, and forecasters like the Cook Political Report now favour them there. The Senate, with only a third of seats in play, is harder to call.
Also on the ballot are 36 governorships, with open seats in Georgia, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin the ones to watch. There are also 145 statewide ballot measures, many of them about how elections are run, including voter ID rules in at least seven states.
What's on voters' minds
Mostly, the cost of living. Fuel, groceries, housing and healthcare are all pricier, and inflation is still above the Federal Reserve's target, partly because of the war the US and Israel started with Iran in February. Democrats pin the blame on Trump's tariffs.
Republicans say he delivered on his promise to tighten the border through a sweeping and often controversial crackdown on illegal immigration. A newer issue is artificial intelligence. Senior figures in both parties want it regulated, while Trump has rejected the idea.
And neither party is popular. Unlike in 2018, voters feel negatively about Democrats too. Many want change but aren't sure either side will deliver it.
Why the maps matter
House districts are normally redrawn once a decade, after the census. This time, starting with Texas in 2025, 10 states redrew their maps mid-decade, something not seen since the 1800s. That covers roughly 40% of House seats.
Republicans moved first, Democrats answered in kind, and so many races are being fought on unfamiliar ground. A national polling lead doesn't automatically become seats.
What the polls say
Democrats lead the generic ballot, which asks people which party's candidate they'd back for Congress. It's 51.5% to 43.1% in the RealClearPolling average, 54% to 41% in a THP/MM survey on 28-29 October, and a 10-point gap in an Emerson College poll.
Trump's approval has slid from just over 50% at the start of his second term to about 37% in early October, with 61% disapproving, according to Silver Bulletin.
Following the money
It's a record. The ad-tracking firm AdImpact projects $11.6 billion in political advertising this cycle, more than any before it, including the 2024 presidential race. Nearly $3.4 billion is aimed at Senate races, and the Texas Senate contest alone is expected to draw about $446 million.
The 50 biggest donors have given $2.77 billion so far. Republican-aligned donors supplied about 60% and Democratic-aligned donors about 30%.
The rest came from bipartisan and special-interest groups, including sports-betting and crypto firms.
Elon Musk, who runs Tesla and SpaceX, is the top individual donor at $446 million, followed by Uline founders Elizabeth and Richard Uihlein at $150 million. On the Democratic side, George Soros has given $102 million and Mike Bloomberg $84 million.
Much of it flows through super PACs, which can raise and spend unlimited sums as long as they don't coordinate with candidates. Some of the nonprofits involved don't have to reveal their donors.
Trump's different approach
He's not on the ballot, but his team has worked to put him in the race anyway. By July, he had already campaigned more than at the same point in the 2018 midterms, including appearances with about a dozen candidates in toss-up races. The White House chief of staff said the goal was to bring out people who voted for Trump in 2024 but rarely show up in midterms. He also announced a rare midterm convention in Dallas in September.
In mid-October, he held rallies in Alaska, Arizona and Montana within 48 hours, and promised more in Ohio, Texas, Georgia and Kentucky.
Races and candidates to watch
The House looks more likely to flip. The suspense is in the Senate, where the Cook Political Report estimates Democrats will gain between one and six seats, against the four they need. The races most likely to decide it are in Maine, Michigan, Texas, Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, with North Carolina and Kansas also in the mix.
Texas. Republican Ken Paxton, backed by Trump, beat Senator John Cornyn in the primary despite having been impeached as attorney general over corruption and bribery accusations (he was acquitted). Democrat James Talarico leads 49% to 47% in a Texas Southern University poll, and he's better liked, with a 48% favourable rating against Paxton's 42%.
Maine. Republican Susan Collins, 73, has beaten the polls before. In 2020 she won by nine points after surveys showed her trailing. Her Democratic challenger is now former Maine Senate president Troy Jackson, who replaced Graham Platner after he withdrew from the race on July 10, following allegations of sexual assault, which he denied. Jackson secured the Democratic nomination at a party convention on July 25. The contest remains one of the key races that could determine control of the Senate.
Kansas. The state hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, yet polls show Democrat Adam Hamilton ahead of Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 3 to 9 points, helped by rising farm costs and opposition to the immigration crackdown.
Michigan. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, who has faced a wave of Islamophobic attacks, takes on Republican Mike Rogers in a race expected to be close, with turnout likely to decide it.
Iowa. Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson are locked in a tight contest.
Candidates under fire. Beyond the Senate map, Georgia Republican Mike Collins claimed, without evidence, that Joe Biden ordered the 2024 assassination attempt on Trump.
Ohio Republican congressman Max Miller denies abuse allegations from his ex-wife and a former partner, which Congress's Ethics Committee is reviewing. And New York Democrat Darializa Avila Chevalier has drawn criticism over deleted posts calling for abolishing police, prisons and borders.
Indian-origin candidates to watch
Indian Americans are on the ballot in both parties, from Congress to governors' races.
Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican entrepreneur, is running for Ohio governor against Democrat Amy Acton and trails narrowly, 48% to 44% in a Suffolk University poll. It's been a bitter race, with a $4 million Ramaswamy ad featuring Acton's estranged mother and a dispute over debates.
In Congress and beyond. Democrats Ro Khanna and Ami Bera of California, Pramila Jayapal of Washington and Suhas Subramanyam of Virginia are all on the ballot.
Democrat Amish Shah is challenging Republican Jay Feely in Arizona's 1st District, and Pia Dandiya is in a toss-up race in Florida's 22nd. Republican Saritha Komatireddy is challenging New York Attorney General Letitia James, and Nithya Raman is challenging Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass.
Setbacks. Two Indian American House members, Raja Krishnamoorthi and Shri Thanedar, lost their Democratic primaries. Republicans of Indian origin face pressure over the Trump administration's tougher stance on skilled immigration, including a proposed $100,000 fee on H-1B petitions.
What each result would mean
Republicans keep both chambers. Trump gets a free run for his final two years. Congress stays positioned to advance his plans on taxes, trade, spending and foreign policy, and Senate Republicans keep control of judicial and executive confirmations.
Democrats win the House only. Divided government returns for the first time since 2024. A Democratic House could block or reshape legislation, control spending bills and use its committees to investigate the administration.
Corruption allegations, the new White House ballroom and immigration enforcement tactics are all possible targets. The Senate would still confirm Trump's nominees, and any major new law would probably need bipartisan compromise.
Democrats are also debating whether to pursue impeachment, which means Congress bringing charges that lead to a political, not criminal, trial.
Democrats win both chambers. They'd control the legislative agenda and, in the Senate, confirmations. But Trump could still veto bills, and Congress can override a veto only with two-thirds majorities in both chambers. Expect negotiation on most major legislation and little chance of significant new laws beyond must-pass items.
When we'll know
Polling stations start closing on Tuesday evening. Indiana and Kentucky close first, so their results are the earliest hint of how the night is going.
Most races will be called on election night, but control of the House could take days to confirm. Each state has its own rules on when mail ballots can be processed, and some only count them after polls close.
In June, the US Supreme Court ruled that states may count mail ballots arriving after Election Day if their laws allow it. For context, in 2024 it took more than a week for seven states to count 95% of their votes.
States then certify results over the following weeks, and recounts or legal challenges could stretch that out in the closest races. The new Congress is sworn in on 3 January 2027.
After the midterms: the road to 2028
Trump can't run for a third term, so once the votes are counted, expect the guessing game over his successor to begin: who will seek the Republican nomination in 2028, and who will challenge that person for the Democrats. Whichever way the vote goes, commentators on every side will use it to argue about how Americans feel about the direction of the country.