NEW DELHI: With nearly 70 lakh Bihari migrant workers returning home for the Chhath festival on October 27–28, just a week before the first phase of Bihar Assembly polls, political experts expect a surge in voter turnout across the state's 243 constituencies.
The Assembly polls will be held in two phases on November 6 and 11, with counting and results scheduled for November 14.
According to estimates, around 2.5 to 3.1 crore Biharis work outside the state, including 80–90 lakh who migrate annually for work as labourers, masons, mechanics, and other trades.
The migrant workers coming home, mostly labourers and employees working in factories, construction sites, and offices across India, are being considered a decisive voter bloc. Many of them are likely to stay back and vote, especially in districts that recorded low polling in 2020.
Both the NDA and Mahagathbandhan (opposition grand alliance) are urging migrant workers to "stay back and vote," portraying it as a duty to ensure a better future for Bihar.
"The majority of those who come (for the festival) belong to Scheduled Castes and marginalised communities whose families benefit from government welfare schemes. Their womenfolk will certainly think of the NDA, not the RJD,” claimed a BJP leader.
However, RJD leaders disagreed, claiming that the migrant workers facing hardship in other BJP-ruled states would not vote for the NDA in Bihar.
"Those who face hardship outside Bihar due to unemployment and poor development under NDA rule will never vote for the NDA,” said a senior RJD functionary.
“Those who feel humiliated or exploited in other states are less likely to vote for parties aligned with those governments,” admitted a senior NDA leader, requesting anonymity.
The NDA leader, however hoped that "trust in Modi and the work done by Nitish Kumar" may convince the migrant workers to back the JDU-led alliance.
While the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan has made joblessness a central campaign issue, the ruling NDA has highlighted job creation and social welfare to counter the attack. Both camps are actively reaching out to returning migrants through local networks, community meetings, and WhatsApp groups.
Districts such as Purnia, Bhagalpur, Muzaffarpur, Vaishali, Saharsa, Sitamarhi, Gaya, Jehanabad, Saran, Motihari, Jamui, Nawada, and Aurangabad — all major hubs of outmigration — are expected to see higher participation this time.
Poll analysts believe the Kosi region, plagued by recurrent floods and high migration, could witness a sharp rise in voting, with nearly half of the returnees expected to stay through election day. Similar trends are anticipated in the Tirhut and Purnia divisions, depending on migrants’ ability to sustain themselves economically after Chhath.