LUCKNOW: Presenting itself as a pan-India political force beyond the regional and linguistic tangents by ensuring Mamata Banerjee’s ouster in West Bengal, striking a hat-trick in Assam with an expanded tally and registering its presence, though little, in Keralam, the ruling BJP is likely to go into the 2027 UP Assembly elections, early next year, doubling down on its identity politics while highlighting its infrastructural achievements.
Political experts believe that the victories in West Bengal and Assam would help the party, which is seeking a third term in Uttar Pradesh, create a sense of inevitability to influence undecided voters and suppress opposition morale. These victories may set the stage for a campaign of the ruling party in Uttar Pradesh, politically the most crucial state in the country, focused on nationalistic continuity.
Under the leadership of CM Yogi Adityanath, as was reiterated by BJP national president Nitin Nabin recently, the poll momentum of the BJP would get a natural boost in UP through the twin victories.
With cadres in high spirits and ready to take on a belligerent opposition — the Samajwadi Party and its ally Congress — the ruling party has already gone into poll mode, strategizing policies to neutralize the opposition’s Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak (PDA) narrative, especially after biting the dust in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when its tally of 62 in 2019 dwindled to 33 in 2024.
Political experts say that BJP’s performance in Bengal and Assam could potentially push it to adopt a more aggressive strategy woven around development issues like highways, airports, and industrial corridors, while flagging the appeasement policy of the opposition parties and countering it with a strong Hindutva narrative.
Besides reiterating its zero-tolerance policy towards crime, the BJP will try to capitalise on the opposition’s stance on the Women’s Reservation Amendment Bill. In a recent public rally at Varanasi, PM Modi launched a direct attack on the SP, calling it anti-women and siding with parties like Congress, DMK, and TMC, which ensured the blocking of women’s quota in legislatures.
SP has already made the same mistake as the Trinamool Congress (TMC). The BJP has also been making this a major issue.
Analysts feel that the convincing saffron surge in West Bengal for the first time in independent India, and a consecutive third term in Assam, would reinforce the BJP as a “winning outfit” in public perception in UP.
However, the onus of striking a hat-trick in UP would be on CM Yogi Adityanath. Having emerged as a dominant political figure across the country, he is now considered a leader capable of influencing voters and shaping poll outcomes.
In West Bengal, the strike rate of Yogi Adityanath, as BJP’s star campaigner, has been 89 per cent. His rallies used to be full to the brim with BJP supporters, credited to his assertive tone and tenor.
Undoubtedly, the saffron campaign in UP would be woven around Yogi’s image, his style of governance, and ideological positioning encompassing a dominant Hindutva narrative. Consequently, it could be a direct “Yogi vs Opposition” contest in the state.
Moreover, the victories in West Bengal and Assam would consolidate the BJP’s commanding position among its allies in UP over the issue of seat sharing. Experts believe that the allies, including RLD, SBSP, Apna Dal (S), and the Nishad Party, would have to make negotiations keeping in mind the stature of the ruling party in the run-up to the next electoral battles.
On the contrary, Akhilesh Yadav, the president of the Samajwadi Party, has already started raising questions on the functioning of the Election Commission of India, crying foul over the fairness of elections in Bengal.
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee did not leave any stone unturned in petitioning the Supreme Court of India over SIR and other issues against the EC, but she failed to get any relief and even failed to convince her voters about the alleged partisan approach of the ECI in the state.
In such a scenario, if Akhilesh Yadav, who has been projecting himself as the key anchor of the INDIA bloc in UP, follows Mamata’s footsteps and blames everything on the EC, it would hardly move the voters in his favour, says Prof. AK Mishra, a political scientist, adding that criticising the EC for defeat is now a stale and hackneyed strategy being followed by the Opposition after every poll defeat.
Akhilesh Yadav will also have to deal not only with the BJP but also with the internal conflicts of the INDIA Alliance. Congress, though it has been putting up a dismal show in state after state, would demand its pound of flesh and may not agree to less than 100 of 403 seats, while the SP may not want to spare more than 50.
Commenting on Akhilesh Yadav’s style of politics, Prof. Mishra says the Bengal election results are a lesson for the SP. “It will have to take to the streets with people’s issues. Just holding press conferences and X posts won’t work anymore.”
In UP, the SP has been dependent on the Yadav-Muslim vote bank to a large extent. However, since 2014, this core vote bank has turned out to be redundant for the party, which has been losing most of the electoral battles despite the core vote bank being intact. The feat of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is considered an exception.
While the BJP focuses on consolidating non-Yadav OBCs, both Congress and the SP will need votes from every section of society to stop the saffron juggernaut.