LUCKNOW: With just over three months to go for the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) have intensified preparations through a combination of extensive ground-level surveys, organisational restructuring and voter outreach programmes. While the BJP is assessing the electoral standing of its legislators through multiple internal studies, the RSS is simultaneously working to strengthen booth-level mobilisation, creating what appears to be the most coordinated BJP-RSS campaign apparatus since the 2022 elections.
According to reports in the public domain, the BJP's internal assessments have flagged significant anti-incumbency against MLAs in several constituencies. One survey is understood to have projected that the party could lose between 52 and 67 seats if corrective measures are not taken.
The exercise reportedly recommended replacing nearly 35% of sitting MLAs to counter local dissatisfaction and refresh the party's electoral appeal.
The surveys are part of a broader four-level feedback mechanism being used to evaluate legislators, organisational strength, caste equations, governance perception and the prospects of potential candidates. Inputs are being gathered from professional agencies, party functionaries, grassroots workers and independent feedback channels."The findings are expected to influence ticket distribution well before the election cycle enters its final phase," says a senior BJP leader.
Parallel to these exercises, the BJP and RSS have drawn up a joint grassroots strategy focused on booth management and direct voter engagement.
Under the plan, joint teams of BJP and RSS workers will conduct extensive door-to-door outreach and organise village-level interactions to gather voter feedback, identify local issues and assess perceptions of the government's performance. The emphasis is on creating a stronger organisational presence at every booth, traditionally regarded by the BJP as the foundation of electoral success.
The campaign also seeks to address concerns over coordination between party workers and RSS volunteers. By forming integrated teams and sharing responsibilities, both organisations aim to ensure seamless communication between the ideological and electoral wings of the Sangh Parivar. "The objective is not merely voter mobilisation but also real-time intelligence gathering on constituency-level issues, caste dynamics and local grievances," says Prof AK Mishra, a prominent political scientist.
The BJP's concerns stem from multiple challenges. Analysts point to anti-incumbency against legislators, the Opposition's continued focus on caste arithmetic and PDA politics propounded by SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, economic concerns among sections of voters, and the challenge of maintaining enthusiasm among core supporters after nearly a decade in power in the state.
Party sources claim that internal surveys are therefore being used not only to identify weak seats but also to determine whether organisational intervention or candidate replacement would offer a better solution.
For the RSS, the focus is less on candidate selection and more on rebuilding personal contact with voters. The planned gram chaupals, household visits and booth-level interactions are intended to create a continuous feedback loop between voters and the organisation. "The Sangh believes that direct engagement can help identify emerging issues much earlier than conventional political campaigning," says a senior RSS functionary in Lucknow.
"The convergence of these strategies underscores the BJP's realisation that the 2027 contest may be more competitive than previous elections," says JP Shukla, a political commentator.
The party is, therefore, pursuing a twin-track approach: data-driven candidate selection through internal surveys and intensive grassroots mobilisation through BJP-RSS coordination, he adds.
The success of this formula could determine whether the BJP retains its dominance in Uttar Pradesh or faces its toughest electoral test since returning to power in 2017.
Moreover, the BJP-RSS secret survey is targeting all 403 seats, including those held by allies such as Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and OP Rajbhar-led Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP). It may be recalled that both the RLD and SBSP were allies of the Samajwadi Party in the 2022 elections. While the SBSP contested 19 seats and won six, the RLD contested more than 33 seats and won nine.
For the upcoming elections, BJP leaders claim that the party will have a say in deciding candidates even in seats allocated to its allies. "The allocation would depend on factors such as caste arithmetic, local factors, the popularity of the candidate and their grip on the seat," says a senior BJP leader.
Meanwhile, the survey classified the seats into four grades, A, B, C and D. Grade A comprises 180 seats considered a safe zone for the ruling party.
Grade B includes around 80 seats, designated as high-risk or narrow-margin constituencies that could pose a significant challenge to the BJP in securing the magic figure of 202 for a third consecutive term in Lucknow.
Grades C and D comprise around 140 seats where the BJP faces strong anti-incumbency or an Opposition advantage.
However, BJP sources claim that an earlier internal survey had projected the party to be leading the race with a 41.8% vote share, followed by the SP at 38.7%.
Informed BJP sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the UGC policy and paper leaks were among the key issues threatening the ruling party's prospects.
"While the UGC issue has left upper castes miffed with the BJP, paper leaks and recruitment drives caught in legal tangles have left educated youth annoyed. Other factors identified during the party's internal survey included upper-caste unease over reservation and deep cadre fatigue," a source said.
Ticket distribution is another challenge. "This time, the party is rolling out a four-level feedback mechanism across all 403 constituencies to assess candidates and ensure their winnability," says a senior party leader, adding that the exercise could result in a large-scale reshuffle of sitting MLAs.
"While the final decision on candidates, after weighing all the options, will rest with the Central Election Committee, the idea is to have a bird's-eye view of organisational performance, governance connect, the central leadership's independent assessment and the Sangh's ground report without any filter while allocating tickets," says a senior BJP leader.
The four surveys were conducted simultaneously. The first was carried out by the party organisation to assess MLAs on 15 parameters. The second was reportedly conducted by the state government at the Chief Minister's level, the third by Union Home Minister Amit Shah's team, and the fourth by RSS cadres active on the ground.
Sitting MLAs who receive poor ratings in at least two or three surveys are likely to be dropped. "We cannot afford to repeat 60-65% of the sitting MLAs," said a senior party leader.
However, denying the existence of such surveys, BJP spokesperson Dinesh Pratap Singh said: "We collect feedback from panna pramukhs and ground-level workers. There is no need for surveys. The BJP works on the principle of Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas. We have the support of all communities."
On Gen Z anger, he dismissed it as an Opposition narrative being built ahead of the 2027 electoral battle.