KOLKATA: A month after it had lost power in West Bengal and barely days after 58 rebel MLAs seized control of its legislature party, the TMC finds itself confronting a question that would have sounded inconceivable just a month ago: can a party built around Mamata Banerjee survive when her authority over it is no longer absolute?
For nearly three decades, the TMC's internal order rested on one unquestioned truth: Mamata Banerjee was the party, and the party was Mamata Banerjee. For the first time in its history, that equation is being challenged.
What began as a rebellion inside the assembly has evolved into a struggle over legislators, a likely spill over in Parliament, succession, the control over the "Flower and Grass" (Jora Ghas Phul) symbol and perhaps the future of one of India's most formidable regional parties.
For the first time since founding the party in 1998, after breaking away from the Congress, Banerjee faces an unprecedented challenge -- a section of her own elected representatives is attempting to separate the leader from the political structure she built.
The crisis confronting the TMC is no longer about losing power. It is about losing the leadership monopoly over loyalty.
The rebels continue to acknowledge her leadership while rejecting the authority of her nephew and political heir apparent Abhishek.
And while the immediate battle is being fought in the assembly and organisation, many TMC leaders privately admit their bigger worry is how to prevent the turmoil from eventually spilling over into Parliament.
The concern stems not from any formal rebellion among MPs but from fears that a successful legislative revolt could embolden similar attempts elsewhere.
"The BJP may try an operation in the TMC's Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha parties, similar to what happened in the West Bengal assembly.
But Mamata Banerjee has fought bigger battles and will bounce back," senior TMC MP Sougata Roy said.
While there is no indication yet of any organised rebellion among MPs, his remarks underline anxieties within the party that the crisis may not end with the assembly split.
"The BJP already has the government in Bengal. It is Parliament where they don't have the numbers," a senior TMC MP said.
With 28 Lok Sabha MPs and 13 Rajya Sabha members, the TMC remains one of the largest opposition parties in Parliament.
Any substantial erosion would weaken not only Mamata Banerjee's national standing but also the opposition bloc's collective strength.
For the TMC, therefore, containing the rebellion has become as important as rebuilding the organisation.
The developments have inevitably invited comparisons with Maharashtra.
Like the Shiv Sena split engineered by Eknath Shinde and the NCP rebellion led by Ajit Pawar, the Bengal revolt has been built around legislative arithmetic rather than organisational control.
Yet there is one important difference.
Unlike Bal Thackeray during the Sena split, Mamata Banerjee remains politically active and retains emotional resonance among large sections of Bengal's electorate. But Maharashtra also offers a warning. Both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar initially believed political legitimacy would outweigh legislative numbers.
Eventually, both found themselves fighting not merely for legislators but for ownership of their parties. That possibility now hangs over the TMC.
The rebels have already claimed they represent the "real TMC".
If the rival faction approaches the Election Commission, the battle could shift from the Assembly floor to legal corridors.
Depending on legislative strength, organisational backing and provisions of the party constitution, the EC could award the grass-flower symbol to one faction, freeze it or direct both groups to contest under new symbols.
The flower-grass is not merely an election symbol. It is the visual identity of the movement that ended the Left Front's 34-year rule.
For millions of voters, the symbol and Mamata Banerjee are virtually inseparable.
Few parties in contemporary India benefited more from political migration than the TMC. MLAs from the Congress, Left and the BJP crossed over in waves during its years in power, helping it expand while weakening rivals.
The CPI(M) and the Congress said the TMC, which "perfected defections", may now be confronting the same political instrument that once fuelled its rise.
The crisis is reviving a possibility that would have sounded absurd until recently -- a strategic rapprochement with the Congress.
Banerjee built her political career by rebelling against the Congress and later sought to replace it as the principal pole of opposition politics.
But with the TMC under siege and the BJP ascendant, some observers believe survival may now demand what ambition once rejected, a closer understanding with the very party she walked away from nearly three decades ago.
"If the objective becomes preserving anti-BJP political space rather than preserving organisational purity, a closer Congress-TMC arrangement cannot be ruled out," political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty said.
TMC MP Sudip Bandyopadhyay remains dismissive of the rebels. "Those deserting Mamata Banerjee have no political locus standi without her.
Whatever they are today is because of Mamata Banerjee," he said.
The TMC leadership is banking on this proposition. After all, this is not the first time Mamata Banerjee has been written off.
The TMC was reduced to a single LS seat in 2004 before staging a remarkable comeback via the Singur-Nandigram movement and eventually capturing power in 2011.
But analysts caution that this crisis is fundamentally different.
Then, she was fighting from the opposition benches.
Today, she is attempting to rebuild after 15 years in power, amid organisational fatigue, succession disputes and the loss of political invincibility.
RS MP Sukhendu Sekhar Roy warned that the party could "disintegrate and cease to exist".
For a party that once appeared inseparable from its founder, that may be the most consequential question of all.
The fight ahead is no longer about winning elections. It is about preventing the flower-grass symbol from becoming a relic of Bengal's political past.