Madhya Pradesh. India's second largest state by area is one where the BJP is defending 28 of the 29 seats it won in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Will the ruling party be able to pull off the feat again?
Well, drop in polling compared to 2019 national elections and the 2023 state polls caused by a waveless election, high anti-incumbency against many sitting MPs, deluge of political switchovers and the caste factor being a driving force in many seats has made the contest close in six-eight seats in the state. In which direction these seats go will decide the answer to the big question everyone is posing ahead of the June 4 results.
Ruled by the BJP for around 19 years (barring a brief 15-months-stint in power) since 2003, the voting in the 29 seats in MP was spread across four phases (April 19, April 26, May 7 and May 13).
The BJP did run a high-octane campaign targeting wins in all 29 seats this time. But the Congress party, despite being faced with an absence of strong candidates in most seats, seems to have made the contest tough in at least six-eight seats, particularly on the back of reasons mentioned above as well as "unpopular" first-time candidates of the ruling party.
Kamal Nath's emotional card
Two out of the six seats -- Chhindwara and Mandla-ST -- turned out to be among the most closely contested that voted in the first phase on April 19.
In Chhindwara – a Congress citadel and ex-CM Kamal Nath’s family pocket-borough since 1980 – first came the buzz about the possible switch by Kamal Nath and his sitting MP Nakul Nath to the BJP in February. After that ended, the Congress veteran played an emotional card for his son Nakul Nath against the BJP’s young district president and candidate Vivek Sahu 'Bunty'.
"While the BJP focused more on political switchovers from the Congress to give psychological shocks to the Nath family and largely relied on big campaigns, including the roadshow by union home minister and party's master poll strategist Amit Shah, the entire Nath family, including the nine-time former MP, his ex-MP wife Alka Nath, first-time MP and Congress candidate son Nakul Nath and Nakul's wife Priya Nath campaigned aggressively through the eight assembly segments in two districts Chhindwara and Pandhurna.
"While Nath Senior played the emotional card, recounting at small poll meetings about how he worked endlessly throughout his young days for Chhindwara, his son and daughter-in-law came down heavily on the deserters, including ex-minister Deepak Saxena, sitting MLA Kamlesh Shah and first-time mayor Vikram Ahake," said Chhindwara-based journalist Lalit Soni summing up the battle.
"In a constituency where over 45% of the population is tribal, BJP's tribal leader Nathan Shah had lost by 37,000-plus votes to Nakul Nath in 2019. But instead of repeating Shah or fielding a tribal candidate, the BJP fielded its district president Vivek Sahu, whose baniya (trader) community only has around 8% voters.
"The mood on the ground, particularly due to Nath Senior's emotional card could be best indicated by city mayor Vikram Ahake's dramatic announcement of support to Nakul Nath on the poll day, just a few days after he switched over to the BJP. All in all, if Nakul Nath wins the battle the margin may well be 50,000-plus, while if the BJP wins the seat, it may surprise the Nath family by 5,000-10,000 votes," Soni claimed.
A battle that can go in any direction
In the adjoining Mandla-ST seat which was a Congress bastion till 1991, but since then has been won by the BJP's tribal face and union minister Faggan Singh Kulaste six times, the battle is a re-run of 2014, as Kulaste is pitted against four-time Congress MLA and ex-minister Omkar Singh Markam, who lost in 2014 by 1.10 lakh.
As an RSS leader in Mandla told The New Indian Express, "The battle can go any way, particularly after Kulaste's Vidhan Sabha poll defeat from home seat Niwas-ST in 2023. While the Congress seemed to have an edge in Bichhiya, Niwas, Shahpura and Dindori, the BJP MP seemed to be ahead in Keolari, Gotegaon and Mandla assembly segments. Though the contest may be too close to predict, big leads in Keolari, Mandla and Gotegaon may prove the key, if Kulaste (known to be a successful poll manager) actually manages to win for the seventh time."
Another sitting BJP MP Ganesh Singh (the four-times Kurmi caste winner from Satna seat) who too lost the 2023 Vidhan Sabha polls just like Kulaste, is locked in a fierce battle against another OBC candidate and the second time Congress MLA Siddharth Kushwah in Satna constituency in the Vindhya region.
With the dominant OBC vote split in two parts between the Congress and BJP candidates (the Congress candidate had defeated the same BJP MP in the 2023 assembly polls), the powerful four lakh-plus Brahmin caste votes may well be the decider in the seat where caste has always been the predominant factor.
"As per inputs with us, the BSP candidate and ex-BJP MLA Narayan Tripathi might have secured large chunk of Brahmin votes, but the question remains that in this three-cornered battle has he damaged the BJP MP’s poll prospects more or jolted the Congress' prospects by cornering the major chunk of anti-Ganesh Singh Brahmin vote, which would have ideally gone to Kushwah had Tripathi not been in the fray.
"Another key factor is that the BJP MP still enjoys good support among other castes in various pockets of the eight assembly segments strong seat and the tilt of Thakur voters across the seat for the BJP and Sindhi voters in Satna city, may end up playing a definitive role if the contest gets close on expected lines," maintained Satna-based political commentator Vishnukant Tripathi.
Region that has given the BJP the most headaches
However, the BJP's biggest concern could be the four-seat strong Gwalior-Chambal region, which was the closest contested region in the 2023 assembly polls also, as BJP got 18 seats which was just two more than Congress' 16 in the state elections.
Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia (who recently lost his mother Madhavi Raje Scindia) might well make a winning debut as a BJP nominee from the seat (which he won on Congress ticket four times between 2002 and 2014) despite strong Yadav caste opposition due to denial of BJP ticket to sitting BJP MP KP Yadav.
But the three other seats of the region may well spring a surprise, largely due to "unpopular" BJP candidates, all of whom are considered to be Vidhan Sabha speaker and ex-union minister Narendra Singh Tomar's loyalists.
"Scindia has worked very hard throughout the battle in Guna, but in neighbouring Gwalior, Morena and Bhind-SC seats, the BJP is faced not only with strong contest from the Congress, but also possibility of sabotage from its own cadres, who are concerned with the growing dominance of Narendra Singh Tomar in the politics of the region, which is also the home turf of other BJP leaders, including ex-MP minister Narottam Mishra and current state BJP president VD Sharma.
"It wouldn't be a surprise if the BJP’s loses one of the three bastions (Morena, Gwalior and Bhind-SC), two of them or even all three in a worst case scenario. When the tickets were announced, the Morena seat was looking to be the toughest, but owing to upper caste consolidation against the BJP candidate Bharat Singh Kushwah, the Gwalior seat has ended up becoming the biggest concern for the ruling party among those three closely contested seats," Guna-based journalist Vikash Dixit claimed.
In Morena, Tomar's loyalist Shiv Mangal Tomar (who lost 2 consecutive state elections) is pitted against ex-MLA of the ruling party Satyapal Sikarwar and in Bhind-SC seat the sitting MP Sandhya Rai, already braving anti-incumbency is facing a big challenge from Congress' old warhorse and sitting MLA Phul Singh Baraiya.
The presence of BSP candidates in Morena and Bhind-SC seat, however, could play a decisive role in case of really close contests.
Among the two-three other closely contested seats, Rajgarh seems to be the top one.
A seat which was won by sitting MP Rodmal Nagar by 4.35 lakh votes in 2019 has now become very interesting as the biggest Congress politician of the region and ex-CM Digvijaya Singh had returned to his home constituency (which he won in 1984 and 1991, but lost in 1989) as a candidate after 33 years.
Knowing well that the two-time sitting MP, Shivraj Singh Chouhan-loyalist Rodmal Nagar, is facing massive opposition from voters and party cadres for "non-performance", the BJP throughout the campaign kept on harping that the battle was not between Digvijaya Singh and Rodmal Nagar, but actually a contest between Singh and Modi and Singh and BJP.
Trying desperately to polarise the battle on Hindutva plank, a local BJP leader even termed it as a battle between Digvijaya Singh and Lord Ram. But Singh astutely responded, "It's neither a contest between Modi and me nor can I ever dream of battling Lord Ram. Had Lord Ram been the BJP candidate, I would've been his proposer and not poll rival. This is battle between me and the non-performer BJP MP."
Singh's campaign was marked by his padyatras in villages reminding voters about unkept promises of the state government and the local MP.
But despite all the hard work put in by the septuagenarian Congress leader, the RSS-BJP top brass in Rajgarh (which has long been RSS’s stronghold) believes that reversing the 4.35 lakh lead of 2019 isn't going to be easy for Singh, despite valiant efforts. Besides low polling in Singh's home assembly segment Raghogarh and adjoining Chachauda, compared to other six assembly segments, may well turn out to impact the Congress leader's poll prospects.
Seats witnessing close fights in RSS-BJP's biggest base in MP
The Malwa-Nimar (agrarian and tribal dominated western and southwestern MP region) which since decades has been considered the RSS-BJP's biggest base in the state, too had two-three seats which may end up becoming closely fought.
In the Ratlam-ST seat, a Congress citadel (which has been breached by the BJP only twice, in 2014 and 2019), five-times Congress winner and former union minister Kantilal Bhuria is pitted against MP minister Nagarsingh Chouhan’s wife Anita Nagarsingh Chouhan in a battle which has been presented as Bhil Vs Bhilala tribe battle.
According to Jhabua-based political analyst Chandrabhan Singh Bhadauria, only two seats (Khargone-ST and Ratlam-ST) are going to see a real battle.
"In Ratlam-ST, despite all efforts by the veteran campaigner Bhuria, the BJP's strong base in Alirajpur, Petlawad, Thandla, Ratlam City and Ratlam-Rural segments may neutralise Congress gains in Sailana, Jobat and Jhabua assembly segments. Also, the presence of a Bhartiya Adivasi Party candidate may also disturb Congress' poll calculations and prove a key factor, if the BJP retains the seat, it won by 90,000 votes in 2019," he said.
"Also, in the neighbouring Khargone-ST seat, the first-time Congress candidate Porlal Kharte fought a very strong election against first-time sitting BJP MP Gajendra Patel. But if reports from the ground zero are to be believed then the Congress candidate being an ex-government officer and not afull-time Congress leader, could've actually seen the loyalists of established Congress leaders of the region, including ex-minister Bala Bachchan and ex-MLA Ravi Joshi not working in the desired manner for the party candidate, which may help the BJP’s poll prospects if the battle goes down the wire.
"Same seems to be the situation in adjoining Dhar-ST seat, where the ASI's ongoing survey of Bhojshala-Kamal Maula Mosque complex in Dhar town would have driven the increase in poll percentages in Dhar and Mhow assembly segments. Also a not-so-active campaign by sitting Congress MLA Dr Hiralal Alawa in Manawar assembly segment too may play a key role if the BJP leads from there. With the Congress candidate Radheyshyam Muvel being seen as leader of opposition Umang Singhar's loyalist, another ex-MP minister and local MLA Surendra Singh 'Honey' Baghel's loyalists are believed to have not whole heartedly backed the party candidate against the former MP and BJP candidate Savitri Thakur. All in all, Congress was only in a fight on three seats of Malwa-Nimar region, but if BJP wins those three seats also, then a faction fight within the Congress could emerge as the biggest contributor," Bhadauria maintained.
The most talked about seats and biggest names
All three big names – ex-CMs Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Digvijaya Singh and union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia – were in the fray in the third phase (May 7). It was these three seats which largely pulled the poll percentage to 66.75% that was more than 66.63% of the 2019 polls. While Singh's seat Rajgarh reported tje maximum 76% voting, Chouhan’s Vidisha recorded 75% voter turnout and Scindia's Guna was 2.5% behind with 72.5% voting.
While Singh is locked in a tough contest, Scindia may manage to wrest the seat he lost as Congress candidate in 2019. But in Vidisha, the five-times former winner Chouhan is eyeing a record win (his supporters are working for a 10-lakh win) to consolidate his position in national politics.
The biggest challenge to Chouhan's target of a record winning margin from Vidisha, comes not from any closely contested seat, but from Indore LS seat which is seeing the first-of-its-kind battle between the sitting BJP MP Shankar Lalwani and NOTA following the 'Vote for NOTA' call by Congress, whose nominee Akshay Kanti Bam shocked the opposition party by withdrawing his nomination on April 29.
With Indore having reported 60%-plus polling (over 15 lakh out of the 25.26 lakh votes having been polled on May 13), the BJP is confident of the winning margin being much beyond 10 lakh votes, even if NOTA gets 3 lakh plus votes.
Fall in poll percentages: What does it mean?
The voter turnout in the four-phase poll stood at 66.87% which was lower than 71.16% of the 2019 polls. Both the male and female voting percentages declined by 3-4% across the state.
According to Bhopal-based political analyst Chandrashekhar Mishra, "The fall in poll percentage can be understood on two counts, firstly that many traditional BJP voters might've skipped voting out of overconfidence that their vote may not be that crucial due to a Modi-wave already sweeping the state, Secondly the old and loyal Congress voters too may've shown less interest in voting, feeling that PM Modi's popularity, particularly in the wake of Ayodhya Ram Temple consecration, left the main opposition party nothing much to gain."
While maintaining that decline in women vote in most constituencies doesn't portend well for the BJP (for which the female voters have been the backbone), Jhabua-based political commentator Chandrabhan Singh Bhadauria claimed that "in many tribal-dominated areas in western and southwestern MP, the female voters (even including beneficiaries of Modi government's schemes) don't seem to have voted owing to replacement of the state's longest-serving CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan by present CM Dr Mohan Yadav."