CHANDIGARH: With less than four months left for the 2027 Punjab assembly elections, the re-alliance between the erstwhile allies Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) has now gathering momentum, after back-to-back public statements about the formation of an NDA government in Punjab by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, as it is likely after Diwali an announcement could be made to this effect.
Sources said that discussions between the both allies over seat-sharing are underway and could be formalized soon and the alliance is likely to be announced after Diwali as signs are emerging that talks on a possible alliance.
It is learnt that that Prime Minister Narendra Modi may personally visit Punjab to announce the NDA alliance whenever the talks are finalized. "There are positive signs that both parties could once again enter into an alliance", said a senior saffron party leader on condition of anonymity.
Asked about the possible seat-sharing formula, sources indicated that the BJP could get between 45 and 50 seats under the arrangement, although the party continues to officially maintain that it is preparing to contest all 117 Assembly seats in Punjab.
Shah’s repeated references to an NDA government in Punjab are being seen as a sign of positive movement in the BJP’s engagement with the SAD. The SAD was a constituent of the NDA until September 2020, when it pulled out of the alliance over the Centre’s farm laws which are now repealed.
Refusing to give a timeline for a possible alliance between the SAD and BJP, Akali dal president Sukhbir Singh Badal said, "I am not a astrologer, you will get to know in a few days."
Speculation about a possible alliance between both parties gained momentum after BJP leaders were seen posing with Sukhbir Badal at the wedding reception of BJP national vice-president and first cousin of Sukhir, Manpreet Singh Badal’s daughter in Chandigarh. The photographs went viral on social media, triggering fresh discussions about a possible reunion of the former allies.
But different statements by senior BJP leaders have reportedly added to the uncertainty within the SAD camp. While Union Home Minister Amit Shah has said the NDA will form the next government in Punjab, BJP state president Kewal Singh Dhillon has maintained that the party will contest all 117 Assembly seats on its own.
Sources said internal BJP surveys indicate the party stands to gain electorally by allying with the SAD rather than contesting the elections alone. Without a pre-poll alliance between the BJP and the SAD in Punjab, the Congress could gain a clear edge in the elections.
The Congress, the only pan-Indian challenger to the BJP, has consistently pressured the Union government through protests and political campaigns, including rallies against Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar, with Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, leading the charge.
Thus, a pre-poll pact between the erstwhile allies could help them counter both the Congress and the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), positioning the alliance as the principal challenger to the ruling party in Punjab.
"Of the 117 Assembly seats in Punjab, the BJP might contest around 45-50, with the remaining seats likely to be contested by the Akalis. The seats allotted to the splinter faction, the Shiromani Akali Dal (Punar Surjit), could either come out of the BJP’s quota or be accommodated separately if the faction merges back with the SAD. In that case, Sukhbir Badal might allocate seats to its leadership, but that is yet to be decided," a senior SAD leader said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The BJP has relented from its earlier stand that it should be the senior partner in the alliance, as it seems to have finally, though grudgingly, accepted that it needs the Akali Dal's support to make a decent mark in the upcoming assembly polls.
The signs of rapprochement among Akali factions are already emerging, with Prem Singh Chandumajra, leader of Shiromani Akali Dal (Punar Surjit), backing Sukhbir Badal’s call for Akali solidarity for Punjab’s sake. A broad Akali unity is expected to precede SAD’s NDA reentry ahead of 2027 Punjab polls.
For the BJP, it is important to deal with both AAP and Congress. Though AAP’s electoral influence is limited to Punjab, where it rules, the Arvind Kejriwal-led outfit is gaining influence through public movements led by the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP).
Beyond the CJP and Congress-led movements on electoral transparency, the BJP also faces challenges in other states that go to polls early next year, apart from Punjab.
In August this year, Sukhbir Badal and PM Modi met cordially at the Parliament House complex, their first official engagement since SAD left the NDA six years ago. Since then, signs of a reunion have only grown. PM Modi’s point man for Punjab polls, CR Patil, has also met Sukhbir, and now Amit Shah has extended an olive branch.
While SAD supported NDA’s presidential candidate Droupadi Murmu on July 1, 2022, ahead of that year's July 18 presidential poll, Sukhbir recently reversed SAD’s earlier opposition to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pet agenda of delimitation and 33 per cent women’s reservation and backed it.
In June this year, a formal resolution was passed at an NDA meeting acknowledging seven foundational figures of the coalition. The list prominently featured the late Parkash Singh Badal of the SAD, alongside Atal Bihari Vajpayee of the BJP and Balasaheb Thackeray of the Shiv Sena. Earlier, on April 27, 2023, then BJP president J P Nadda had attended the funeral of NDA stalwart Parkash Singh Badal in Muktsar.
However, even if the two parties reunite, the road ahead may not be smooth. The SAD leadership continues to face unpopularity among voters, particularly within its core support base of rural Jat Sikh farmers, following the death of former Punjab Chief Minister and party patriarch Parkash Singh Badal.