How many vettris (wins) can the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) manage in their debut election? Can they at all?
These are the looming questions ahead of this poll in Tamil Nadu, which has seen a record 97-lakh-plus people being removed from the draft SIR rolls.
"Cuppu mukiyam, Bigilu (The cup is important, Bigil)" Vijay had said after his party had been handed the whistle symbol for the polls by the Election Commission, underlining that he was in the fight for nothing lesser than the biggest prize—that of becoming the Chief Minister.
The party meet in Mahabalipuram where he said this was also notable for Vijay's first direct attack on the AIADMK.
"Only TVK has the guts and the attitude to take on the 'evil force' (DMK) that is ruling now and the 'corrupt force' (AIADMK) that ruled earlier. Whether it is this evil force or that corrupt force, both should not rule Tamil Nadu," he had said.
His positioning is clear. His will be a third front and the erstwhile biggies are all fair game for him. How this will impact the fortunes of the two rival fronts led by the Dravidian majors—the DMK and the AIADMK—will be interesting to see in the days ahead.
On paper, the DMK-led front headed by Chief Minister MK Stalin appears unassailable, but the ruling party cannot afford to ignore the weight of anti-incumbency. On issues such as corruption and law and order, the ruling party has come under sustained attack from the opposition.
Allies, including the two Communist parties and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), are facing public criticism for failing to question the government when it fell short of fulfilling its promises. Meanwhile, a section of the Congress is pressing for a share in power, adding to the coalition's internal strains. Stalin will also have to contend with accusations of engaging in dynastic politics.
The Chief Minister seems aware of the possible challenges in the way of sealing a second term, which is why he announced the Rs 3000 per family as an added Pongal gift. Then there were the laptops he gave away to deserving students. These handouts were in the keeping with the playbook used by victorious parties in recent state elections.
Former Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami of the AIADMK, in contrast, looks to be on rickety footing, leading an alliance largely stitched together to confront the upcoming polls.
The presence of uneasy bedfellows—such as the BJP, TTV Dhinakaran, once bitterly opposed to Edappadi, and Anbumani Ramadoss of the PMK, who is embroiled in a public feud with his father and party founder S Ramadoss—highlights the fragility and contradictions within the combine. In fact, the irony is that the BJP is seen by many experts as the biggest millstone around the AIADMK's neck.
With the party no longer the formidable political force it was during the eras of MG Ramachandran and J Jayalalithaa, scripting a return to power remains a formidable ask for Edapaddi and his alliance.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, for his part, has repeatedly pitched his grand idea of a "double-engine" government to make inroads into Periyar land. But many question the power that this idea wields in Dravida naadu ahead of the 2026 election.
Returning to Vijay, his biggest strength is said to be the youth, with many of them seeing him as a credible alternative to the Dravidian rivals. Their refrain: "Maatram vennum, illiya? (Change is needed, is it not?)," as a young state government bus driver, who had Vijay's photo on his cell phone case, told us.
It must be noted that in 2021, there were 1.37 crore young voters in the age group of 18-29 amongst a voter population of 6.26 crore. So, any party that underestimates the power of what this youth vote can do for Vijay will do so only at their own peril. Tamil filmdom's Thalapathy also will be eyeing women votes. Five years ago, women voters outnumbered men 3.18 crore to 3.08 crore.
The TVK enters the fray with a largely clean slate—except for the shadow cast by the Karur stampede in September last year, where 41 Vijay fans lost their lives while gathering for a glimpse of the actor. But the party currently lacks major allies and Vijay's early moves have been largely amateurish.
The larger question also remains: does Vijay have anything fundamentally new to offer?
He invokes Periyar EV Ramasamy and CN Annadurai (Anna's "Makkalidam Sel (Go to the people)" slogan is a recent example. However, Vijay's outreaches to the people itself have been few and far between.).
Rajalakshmi, a former Mylapore AIADMK MLA now with TVK, said after Vijay's recent meeting with party office-bearers in Mamallapuram, "Listening to Vijay is like listening to Puratchi Thalaivar. MGR also spoke succinctly. Vijay is MGR reincarnated." Such comparisons, familiar in Tamil Nadu's political theatre, reflect hyperbole though the underpinning of hope it brings must not be brushed away.
The 51-year-old actor, meanwhile, is under CBI investigation in connection with the Karur stampede. His film Jana Nayagan, touted as his final cinematic outing, continues to remain in limbo, for reasons political or otherwise.
Among others, the late actor Vijayakanth's DMDK, presently spearheaded by his wife Premalatha, and the faction led by PMK founder S Ramadoss are yet to make a call on alliance.
Then there is Seeman's Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK). Seeman addresses Vijay as "Thambi" (younger brother). Whether he will join hands with the TVK leader remains to be seen.
The days ahead promise to be eventful—watch this space for updates.