You Bet They Know Who Will Win Delhi - The New Indian Express

You Bet They Know Who Will Win Delhi

Published: 01st Dec 2013 07:54:08 AM

The analysis can put any seasoned psephologist to shame. Every constituency, every candidate in the fray for the December 4 Delhi Assembly elections have been studied, graded and tagged with a price. The verdict? No matter what the opinion polls scream about voters swinging between electing the BJP and the Aam Admi Party (AAP), the money is on the Congress winning a fourth term.

Cautious after the IPL fiasco, bookies operating from the heart of the national capital are not using cell-phones or the Internet. Rather they are relying on reams of data collected by dedicated teams of foot soldiers who have gone from area to area to gauge the public mood and help firm up the odds. It has been painstaking work, collating the data and carrying out an analysis on the chances of every party. But then again the stakes are high with more than Rs. 250 crore riding on the results.

The odds for Delhi election as decided by the eight or nine big daddies of betting are based on parameters like relative strength of political parties, previous records of candidates, winnability factor, anti-incumbency and the mood at rallies. Now, the odds are as low as Rs. 2 for every Rs. 1 invested on Congress, Rs.2.30 per rupee for BJP and as much as Rs. 3.75 per rupee for AAP.

Explaining how it works, a bookie on condition of anonymity told The Sunday Standard that the lowest returns promised meant the party was a clear favourite and likely to win the election. For example, punters placing Rs.1 lakh on Congress will get Rs. 2 lakh if the party wins in Delhi but if they place the same amount on AAP, they stand to gain Rs. 3.75 lakh.

“Unlike cricket matches, the odds based on pre-poll assessment and seats analysis will remain constant. No bet is accepted over the phone and to ensure flexibility and transparency, a copy of our analysis has been circulated among punters,” he said.

The racket has analysed party performance constituency-wise to finalise the odds. According to the syndicate, the Congress party would win 19 seats, had an edge in five seats and would be part of a close contest in nine seats.

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Comments(14)

The fact that the people are even voting for the congress is quite astonishing and baffling as this is the party that has given a whole new meaning to the term " corruption". How can such a knowledge and educated class be so gullible and naive? All I can say is that they are digging their own grave...

Making myself very clear I am also one among who hate corruption but when it comes to assessing a government each individual judgement is different, those who haven't benefited from any of the schemes of govt. will look mainly corruption as a factor to decide his/her vote but people who have benefited will decide in favor and these people do not come to media to express their opinion but you and me do regularly and vociferously but we are minority in the process of a democratic event like election.and we should accept it respecting the democracy.

Wrong - majority are actually impoverished and kept consoled with these freebies. Their self-reliance is being destroyed. So the question is not whether they would see value in freebies but to ask them honestly evaluate the balancesheet of what they lost vs what they gained. In that, democracy is only hoodwinked by cong. So its not just corruption that is the problem or for a minority of non-beneficiaries.

Just ponder whether you would like Modi to be the next PM of India. On his trip to J&K he insinuated the people by bringing up the Article 370 issue. True, it may be desirable to have a discussion on Article 370 but his sense of timing is really absurd. And, he calles the FATHER OF THE NATION as Mohanlal Gandhi.Does he know the National Anthem or Vande Matram? Take it from me he does not? It is an insult to our country. I think all MP's and MLA's should pass a test of singing the National Anthem before taking the oath. Moreover, it is rumoured that Modi will not be PM if BJP wins. He will get sidelined or given a post of Deputy Prime Minister which he will not accept and come beck to India.

This appears to be a paid news because only a few days ago the so called 'storiye' in Delhi were rooting for BJP. Nothing dramatic has happened since that analysis was published. That analysis by the bookies had pushed congress to third place and that is going to be the most likely scenario the day results are declared.

Elections decide the fate of the state, and this gaming and betting on election result is ugly, sadistic and unconstitutional to say the least. Because opinion polls don't favor cong, it is trying to prop this kind of immoral and unacceptable ways of betting, sting operations etc. Shame on cong, but more than that shame on media to cover these as positive news items.

I don't want to see congress in any state.

This is a wrong news. Read Yesterday's Economic Times or any other newspapers which quote the bookies the other way.

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